Not that Trump supporters will notice, but he may be charged not only with inciting a riot, but also for violating immigration laws in what appears to have been a brazen H1-B scam involving his Trump modeling agency. And as objectionable as the protestors’ behavior has been, it’s deeply immoral for a Presidential candidate to repeatedly suggest attacking protestors, and then pick up the legal bills for an assault.
But don’t tell his supporters — they’re angry and they’re voting for Trump, and that’s that.
Trump appears to be have Florida won (as many voters have already cast ballots), but Kasich has led Ohio polling and Cruz has been surging in Illinois and Missouri. That leaves Rubio out of the race after tomorrow… and three possible scenarios.
Cruzin’ to the Nom: Ted takes Illinois and Missouri convincingly and scores a surprise victory in Ohio, erasing most of Trump’s delegate lead. Kasich drops out and the race is between Cruz and Trump the rest of the way — if Cruz can get to 55% or better, as his polling suggests, he enters the convention with the most delegates and momentum at his back, perhaps even getting to 1237 without help from the unbound delegates. Bring on the Plains and West Coast states!
The Trumpening: Trump sweeps to victory in all four states, tripling his delegate lead, pushing past 50% and putting 1237 in his sights. Cruz has a very difficult path from here, but he can actually make up 300 delegates even after May 1st if he runs strong in a two man race — even in WTM states, getting past 55% wins around 90% of delegates, and there are a lot of WTA states here (although they are mostly CD/AL WTA, which is why winning by 10+ matters a lot). Still, not much daylight left.
The Muddle Continues: This seems most likely, based on polling. Cruz wins, splits, or at least runs strong in Illinois and Missouri. Kasich takes Ohio, but does he drop out shortly after, and how does Cruz run with Kasich still around? Trump picks up the most delegates, but only gets around half, leaving Not Trump leading the delegate race. And anything could happen from there, including Trump actually shooting people on 5th Avenue.
Comments
12 responses to “Inflection Point”
poop from a poop head. how can you buy the cheep foreign goods when your job leaves the country and your working part time at minimum wage? and now they are limiting food stamps to parents with children.
http://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/more-than-500000-adults-will-lose-snap-benefits-in-2016-as-waivers-expire
What is
WTM states
WTA states
CD/AL WTA
I’m not conversant with phone speak.
BTW Klavan has no respect for Trump voters. But he does get one thing right. This election is NOT about policy. Trump has no coherent policy. Except staying on the front page.
This is what the election is about:
http://classicalvalues.com/2016/03/all-he-has-going-for-him-is-a-lot-of-votes/
The elites are making out like bandits and even in recovery a LOT of folks are hurting. The unemployment rate is entirely bogus. Look at he labor participation rate. That tells a different story.
Cruz and home schooling:
http://conservatives4palin.com/2016/03/lyinted-ted-cruz-is-lying-about-common-core-and-home-schooling.html
Tricky lawyer words? Sure.
Palin is supporting a draft-dodging, war-hero-mocking, war-crime-ordering, KKK-winking, eminent-domain-abusing, amnesty-promising, wife-cheating, four-time-bankrupting, Planned-Parenthood-supporting, Democrat-donating, Trump-Network-failed-pyramid-scheme-running, women’s-face-insulting, Muslim-citizen-banning, Trump-University-ripoff-running, cocaine-hoovering, tax-return-hiding, charity-cheapskating, legal-and-illegal-immigrant-hiring, short-fingered, 15-points-behind-Hillary-Clinton-running…
Can’t believe I ever defended that woman as halfway intelligent.
The KKK are idiots.
My name is Donald Trump and I’m a BIG fan of Israel
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And yes. You are probably correct about Trumps personal failings. But the election is not about him. He is the anti-establishment candidate. That is all that counts.
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As you well know LOTS of anti-Trump commercials were run before the Illinois vote. He still won.
You think this election is based on rationality. It is not. It is based on emotion. Reason has been shut off.
There are more than a few people who are not voting FOR Trump. They are voting against the establishment.
Scott Adams (Dilbert) makes the same points I do.
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/141090636816/donald-trump-con-man
The evidence is that Trump completely ignores reality and rational thinking in favor of emotional appeal. Sure, much of what Trump says makes sense to his supporters, but I assure you that is coincidence. Trump says whatever gets him the result he wants. He understands humans as 90% irrational and acts accordingly.
Rand Paul, on the other hand, treated voters as if they were intelligent creatures who make decisions based on the facts. His campaign didn’t last long with that message. Rand Paul knows about a lot of stuff. He’s a smart guy. But apparently psychology is not on the list of things he knows. And psychology is the only necessary skill for running for president.
Trump knows psychology. He knows facts don’t matter. He knows people are irrational. So while his opponents are losing sleep trying to memorize the names of foreign leaders – in case someone asks – Trump knows that is a waste of time. No one ever voted for a president based on his or her ability to name heads of state. People vote based on emotion. Period.
You used to think Trump ignored facts because he doesn’t know them. That’s partly true. There are plenty of important facts Trump does not know. But the reason he doesn’t know those facts is – in part – because he knows facts don’t matter. They never have and they never will. So he ignores them.
Right in front of you.
And he doesn’t apologize or correct himself. If you are not trained in persuasion, Trump looks stupid, evil, and maybe crazy. If you understand persuasion, Trump is pitch-perfect most of the time. He ignores unnecessary rational thought and objective data and incessantly hammers on what matters (emotions).
Another good Scott Adams on the subject:
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/138484797336/can-a-master-persuader-reverse-hate
You and I make our living from rationality. We esteem it highly. But rationality at best is only 10% of the human experience.
That other 90% will crush you if you don’t do well with it.
Of course the 10% can crush you too.
Be careful out there.
More Scott Adams:
I saw the wink sooner than most of you because I study persuasion. So none of his crazy behavior looked crazy to me. It looked skillful to the extreme. So skillful, in fact, that he got to the point where he can literally say any damned thing and his supporters don’t care how true it is. They care that he is on their side and doing whatever it takes to tear down the money-puppets in Washington.
If you don’t see Trump’s wink, you can be forgiven for thinking he is Hitler. He probably knew the risks. Reagan had the same experience. Trump is following the Reagan game plan so he had to expect what is happening now.
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Now think about my recent posts. I’ll give you a few quotes.
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The thing I like most about Trump is his insincerity.
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Trump!
Because you KNOW he is lying
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Trump!
For the LULZ
What you are forgetting about politics is that they are ALL con men. Or as my grandpappy always used to say: “They are all crooks”
So pick your favorite. But never forget you are dealing with a crook. Trump is more obvious than most. That, I believe, is helpful.