Watts Up With That? discusses the coming of a 30 year cooling period in our very near future.
Over the last 10 years or so as new data have accumulated the general trend and likely future course of climate change has become reasonably clear. The earth is entering a cooling phase which is likely to last about 30 years and possibly longer. The major natural factors controlling climate change have also become obvious.Unfortunately the general public has been bombarded by the scientific and media and political establishments with anthropogenic global warming – anti CO2 propaganda based on the misuse and misrepresentation of already shoddy IPCC “science” for political ,commercial and personal ends.
The IPCC climate science community largely abandoned empirical Baconian inductive scientific principles and built worthless climate models based on unfounded assumptions designed to show that anthropogenic CO2 was the driving force behind changing climate. Most of the IPCC output is useless as a tool for predicting future climate trends and their impacts and in particular the IPCC Summaries for Policymakers can be safely ignored for practical purposes. The divergence between the IPCC Hansen projections and the observed trends is shown below.
Well it is political science. But as I pointed out in an ECN column a while ago. We may be preparing for the wrong catastrophe.
Comments
7 responses to “The Coming Of Cold”
Expect global warming.
Expect that nothing will be done about it even if *everyone* accepted it as fact tomorrow.
Plan your own affairs accordingly.
Daniel,
Global warming is model fiction. Te facts show a plateau leading to cooling.
You are aware of the 30 year – warming – cooling cycles that has been ongoing for 120 years (with attendant scares) are you not?
Actually, the facts show warming with random cooling periods (like the ’70’s, the last time people were talking about “global cooling”).
The scientific basis for warming is sound, not some “model fiction” but rather a clear cause-effect relationship.
There is, however, more money to be made by convincing people that global warming isn’t real than there is to be made by convincing them that it is. Possible profit making techniques for each scenario are left as an exercise for the reader 😉
But really, decide which case is worse for where you live and be prepared for that case. For most people that case is warming.
Daniel,
Yes there is warming. We are coming out of the Little Ice Age. CO2 has very little to do with it.
On top of that the recent episode of warming was caused by ocean cycles.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/11/19/cooling-in-the-near-future/
And cooling is worse. You can’t grow crops under ice.
The Big Money is all in warming. But if you know where to make money on cooling let me know. I’d like some.
Money in persuading people that global cooling is more than a temporary artifact from cherry-picking results?
Fossil fuels in particular. You know, the CO2 sources that we are supposed to burn less of to avoid global warming? There’s at least billions of dallars in revenue at risk there if action is taken based on AGW theory.
Do you really mean to tell me you couldn’t see that all on your own?
There are a lot of other ways to make money if you know global warming is happening and can convince enough people that it’s really swinging the other way.
I’d really like to see a theoretical model that supports cooling in the same way greenhouse gas emission supports warming. I really would, because without a theoretical model you don’t have any predictive capability and you aren’t actually doing science, you’re just drawing pretty lines on a graph.
OK. Daniel,
Let me ask you a few questions. Why are we currently in an interglacial?
Why do ice ages last around 100,000 years?
What causes ice ages?
Can CO2 over come that cause?
Why, if CO2 is so powerful, has there been no warming for the last 15 years despite rising CO2?
And if CO2 is so bad how do you propose to get China and India to sign on?
If they don’t sign on and we do where will the energy intensive jobs be going? Is that a good thing considering the relative efficiency of energy use?
“Why, if CO2 is so powerful, has there been no warming for the last 15 years despite rising CO2?”
Using 1998 as the anchor year is proof that someone is distorting their figures. Run the same graphs with *any other year* as the anchor and you see clear warming trends. Better yet, run a 5 year (or even a 2 year) moving average and see if the cooling trend holds up or if it disappears. Long term trends tend to hold up well against that sort of analysis.
“And if CO2 is so bad how do you propose to get China and India to sign on?”
I don’t expect it to happen. Read my original post again.
The other questions you posit really have no bearing unless you have answers to them that have a solid foundation, bear in mind that current CO2 levels are higher than any we have solid evidence for since the start of the ice ages, and the increase in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has been increasing at an increasing rate.
Consider the fundamentals. Where is the additional CO2 coming from? Carbon that was taken out of the biosphere millions of years before the latest round of ice ages.
Simply put, unless you have someone who can make a better case against AGW than NASA makes for it, you’ve got a hard sale to make.
http://climate.nasa.gov/
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A2.gif
So, yeah. Global warming is real. We aren’t actually going to *do* anything about it. Get ready.