If we could save just 27,940 lives…. (that’s per year)

When I wake up in the morning, I tend to look at my clock. Not so much because I’m interested in the time (I have a pretty natural sense of what time it is), but because I want to know the outside temperature. Thanks to this Sharper Image time temperature clock which is still listed but “currently unavailable” at Amazon, I get to satisfy my morbid curiosity about what is going on with the constantly changing climate outside! I’m really into global warming these days, because it’s been spring for a whole week, and if I understand the theory correctly, the weather is supposed to get warmer as spring advances.

Well, guess what my clock said this morning at 7:00 a.m.? 

A not so sweet sixteen degrees — hardly my idea of spring. It’s enough to make me question global warming theory itself.

Moreover, I have learned that this type of weather is very dangerous, and that merely by living in it, I am subjecting myself to some serious risks.

How serious? Am I being hysterical?

No.

According to an impressive-looking study from the National Bureau of Economic Research, the longer I live in this cold climate, the more likely I am to die!

We estimate the effect of extreme weather on life expectancy in the US. Using high frequency mortality data, we find that both extreme heat and extreme cold result in immediate increases in mortality. However, the increase in mortality following extreme heat appears entirely driven by temporal displacement, while the increase in mortality following extreme cold is long lasting. The aggregate effect of cold on mortality is quantitatively large. We estimate that the number of annual deaths attributable to cold temperature is 27,940 or 1.3% of total deaths in the US. This effect is even larger in low income areas. Because the U.S. population has been moving from cold Northeastern states to the warmer Southwestern states, our findings have implications for understanding the causes of long-term increases in life expectancy. We calculate that every year, 5,400 deaths are delayed by changes in exposure to cold temperature induced by mobility. These longevity gains associated with long term trends in geographical mobility account for 8%-15% of the total gains in life expectancy experienced by the US population over the past 30 years. Thus mobility is an important but previously overlooked determinant of increased longevity in the United States. We also find that the probability of moving to a state that has fewer days of extreme cold is higher for the age groups that are predicted to benefit more in terms of lower mortality compared to the age groups that are predicted to benefit less.  

27,940 is a lot of people, and I am not anxious to join them. But what the statistic means is that unless I move to a warmer place, I am basically playing Russian roulette. The older I get, the more at risk I am.

Scary stuff. We like to joke about global warming, but think of the lives that could be saved if only we were really able to implement it.

I’m skeptical that we ever will, though. At least, I don’t think I’ll ever live to see it. I’m much more likely to freeze to death first.