Were We Right About The Polls? Some Early Evidence Trickles In

Early voting patterns suggesting a Romney blowout in Ohio?

And in a sign that the enthusiasm of 2008 voters is depressed, just 638,997 absentee ballots have been requested, according to American Majority Action, which culled the statistics together from Ohio college professors who are tracking the state’s absentee ballots used for early voting. The group provided Secrets with the details.
Even more dramatic, while the GOP has cut the Democratic advantage in early voting throughout the state, the changes favoring the Republicans in certain counties has been huge. In Franklin County, home to Columbus, for example, a 2008 Democratic advantage of 5 percent is now a 5 percent GOP advantage. In Cuyahoga County, home to Democratic Cleveland, the GOP has shaved six points off the Democrat’s 2008 advantage. And in Hamilton County, home to Cincinnati, Republicans have expanded their 2008 advantage to 13 percent.
University of Dayton Professor Larry Schweikart told American Majority Action President Ned Ryun that the GOP gains favor Romney. “Although it is early, we will soon be at a point where–assuming Republicans vote for Romney–the Democrats will have to overwhelmingly win all the remaining early voting just to be even on November 6. But, given Ohio’s voting history, if the numbers are even close after early voting, Obama will lose, and possibly lose big.”

Very preliminary, but if Romney is carrying Ohio pretty easily, say by +5 or so, then he’s going to win the election handily. And some polls had him down 10 there…

AOS has more detail, with a full county-by-county breakdown.

And remember: this was all before the Denver Massacre, which we now know was seen by one of the largest audiences ever. (My favorite Tweet: “Romney just strapped Obama to the top of his car and drove him across the country. And then ate him.” My contribution: “Out: Zingers. In: Crushing your opponent, seeing him driven before you, and hearing the lamentations of his women. #EatenLikeADog”)

Note that this is exactly what we’ve been saying: turnout is going to look a lot more like 2010 than 2012.

Way too soon to hold a victory party, but if this holds up, the numerous post-mortems that will be written in a month or two will probably go something like this: the 2008 coalition that elected Obama was fragile, being composed of young people, those excited about electing the first black President, independents essentially voting against Bush, and people scared by the 2008 financial crisis. None of them are showing up in force in 2012; most have lost their raison d’etre. Meanwhile, the Tea Party that Obama created in 2009 with his Obamacare push has had legs — this year may end up being considered their peak, though they’ll have significant influence (esp. in primaries) in 2014 and beyond.

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