Let us say that by transmission methods encouraged by the left Ebola doubles every 21 days. In 31 doublings there will be 4 billion dead. Lets do the math 31 *21 = 651 days. A little less than two years.
A commenter elsewhere who made a similar calculation says:
The above post is a bit over simplified as it ignores changes in the population. At some point the infection rate will slow down as logistic curve effects begin to suppress exponential growth. You obviously cannot have more infected than exist in the local population pool and as the death rate grows the number of immune survivors also increases and at some point then will become a large enough portion of the population that the fertile ground for growth in a virgin population will also start to slow the spread as fewer and fewer members of the population are susceptible to the infection. Also social behavior will change when it really gets out of control just as it did during the plagues. Towns will cut themselves off from infected areas, high risk behaviors such as social kisses will disappear.Visits to prostitutes will drop off as people realize such contacts put them at very high risk.
That said the above growth numbers will be valid in the early expansion of the disease through virgin populations at the point where the infection is like a grass fire burning across an open prairie.
Well for now the stupids – although retreating some – still have the upper hand. It will not last. Imminent death has a way of focusing the mind.
Comments
2 responses to “Ebola By The Numbers”
Since I’m no expert on the subject, I’ll feel free to make unsubstantiated wild guesses and take no responsibility when they are wrong, because HEAH, I’m no expert. That said…
I don’t think this is the big one. Not one like the flu of the early 20th century or measles or even polio. This one has killed fewer people in the united states this year than backyard trampolines.
If your country has a Walmart or water you don’t have to carry on your head, you’ll see death rates more like 20% rather than the 70% we’re seeing in Africa. Medical infrastructure, overall health and nutrition brought to you by McDonalds dramatically helps western cultures weather disease outbreaks.
Ebola is one step away from really nasty though. One of three things could make it a real danger.
1st, a longer incubation period overlapped with higher transmission. If it took 6 months to a year to show symptoms and all the while you were contagious, that would put the FU in fun.
2nd, if the disease was spread easily like the cold or the flu rather than body fluid in quantity. So maybe fine particulates of moisture are contagious, maybe a sneeze does it… but there is no one saying a hand shake or sharing a bus seat leads to blood dripping out your butt.
3rd, if the disease was transmissible through other animals, like our pets or livestock or birds or any number of animals that people seem to be so attached to. I can see a population letting an entire city starve in quarantine before they watched every dog and cat getting chucked alive on an open fire in town square….. “NO, not spot, can’t you take the neighbor instead!”
The Big one is coming… just not yet.
Mark,
Re: #3 – animals are the reservoir in Africa.
Only a 20% death rate? Those kinds of death rates are very severe. I’d worry about anything above 1%. Especially if it is no respecter of youth.