I have written a bit on the Kondratieff Cycle over at Hot Gas. I talk about he politics of the INs vs the OUTs. There is also a nice graph.
The INs And OUTs Of The Kondratieff Cycle
by
Tags:
I have written a bit on the Kondratieff Cycle over at Hot Gas. I talk about he politics of the INs vs the OUTs. There is also a nice graph.
by
Tags:
Comments
3 responses to “The INs And OUTs Of The Kondratieff Cycle”
No comment – or maybe yes comment.
Sometimes the Christian Bible is right: There is nothing new under the sun.
You might be interested in Peter Turchin’s “War and Peace and War,” Plume (Penguin), 2006. He attributes cycles to competition among the elites for resources. During expansion, the elite is small, and its exactions do not affect growth. During contraction, the elite is large, and its exactions shrink the productive economy and destabiliize the polity, because the rest of society is impoverished.
As far as I can tell, there are two large cycles: The 50-year Kondratieff cycle and also a 36-year cycle (with peaks at 1857, 1893, 1929, 1965, and 2001). They both peaked in 1929.