So, that was interesting.

Yesterday Cruz not only outperformed his Kansas polling by an astounding 31 points (+25 vs -6), he took Maine, the most Northeastern of all states, where he was not supposed to be competitive, by double digits — and won the Super Saturday delegate haul by a significant margin.

So, what does this tell us?

First off, no one really knows much definitively at this point, the race is too fluid. Maybe the attack ads that have finally ramped up against Trump are working, or voters have just decided on Cruz as the alternative to Trump, or yesterday was just an aberration.

Second, the theory of the race that has support coalescing around a non-Trump candidate seems to be borne out so far — Trump lost support between Super Tuesday and yesterday, 35% to 33%, despite candidates dropping out.

Third, Trump’s core support now clearly seems centered in what Kevin D Williamson called the Big White Ghetto — Appalachia and the extended culture of poor whites who got left behind by the Democrats. They are low-income, low-education, low-class, low-character — exactly the people you would expect to support a crude, feisty, flamboyant con man with a shady past, more than a hint of racism, and no clear principles other than shameless self-promotion. The Midwest seems to want anyone but Trump, who lost IA and MN and got obliterated in KS, and while we don’t know much about the West outside of Nevada yet, Texas and Kansas were Cruz’s best states.

Trump may still take FL because of the panhandle, but Ohio and Michigan could go the way of Iowa and Maine. The worst-case scenario is narrow Trump wins in Ohio and Florida, but even then Cruz has a whole lot of Western, MidWest and Plains winner-take-all states that could put him over the top. It may indeed come down to California.

And keep in mind, the anti-Trump crowd really only needs to deny Trump a first-ballot victory, because the pressure to dump Trump is already strong, and will be overwhelming by July.

UPDATE: Rubio takes all 23 of the Puerto Rican delegates in another win for Not Trump, so the count is now Trump 391, Cruz 304, Rubio 154, Kasich 37.

This brings up an interesting point: what happens to delegates whose candidate has dropped out? Apparently this is a bit of a gray area. It may not matter because one candidate may take enough of the WTA states coming up, but then again…

Even if endorsements don’t swing these voters to Cruz automatically after Kasich and Rubio drop out, it’s hard to imagine uncommitted delegates supporting Trump in July, so once again it appears keeping Donald from taking 1,237 candidates will probably be enough to keep him from being the candidate. Of course, it would be much better if someone else won outright.

UPDATE: Romney endorses Cruz, sort of. Is the GOP coalescing around Cruz?