There have been some developments in Syria. The overall strategic situation is this. The Kurds have taken the territory between Azaz and Kobane called the Azaz Corridor. This is Turkey’s supply route to their proxies in Syria. First some history. And a map.
From January 15th, 2016: Arab Weekly — Syria: The looming battle of the Azaz corridor.
Northern Syria has become a key battleground in several conflicts within the civil war, now approaching its sixth year, and the epicentre is increasingly a strategic strip of land known as the Azaz corridor.
Whoever controls this narrow belt of land west of the Euphrates that runs south from the Turkish border to the embattled city of Aleppo, where rebels hold the eastern sector, should be able to dictate how the multisided Syrian conflict will unfold.
That was a month ago. Here is a ground report response to me that seems to match the latest news
It was over 36 hours ago, simon. Once those main roads were cut off and Aleppo was surrounded, it was over. If you really look at google maps, these areas are not long distances. It’s less than 50 miles from the center of Aleepo to the Turkish border. There is one small section near a place called Anadan that needs to be cut off… major highways. That will start about dawn, which is now. 11 central. The borderlands between Turkey and Syria around the Idlib province are very mountainous and with very few roads… with no depots or established supply lines. new supply lines would be sitting ducks. Turkey and SA have lost and they know it.
Well – you can’t tell the players with out a scorecard. And some of the players have switched sides. And may do so yet again.
Israel is pro Kurdish. ‘Time to help them’: Israeli justice minister calls for independent Kurdish state
Israel ‘very interested’ in strengthening relations with Kurds
News published in the Financial Times on Sunday that Israel imports most of its oil from Iraq’s Kurdish areas came as no shock to those following the secretive Israel-Kurd relationship.
“The news is not so surprising, as it has been going on for some time,” Prof. Ofra Bengio, editor of the book Kurdish Awakening: Nation-Building in a Fragmented Homeland, told The Jerusalem Post on Monday.
“The Kurds do not want problems with Baghdad or Tehran, so they prefer to stay quiet about it and not upset anybody,” said Bengio, a senior research fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University.
It is a “wise idea to do it this way for now,” she added, saying the Kurds preferred to get aid from Israel through a third party.
And the Turkish view of American support for the Kurds : U.S. support for Syrian Kurds ‘a big strategic mistake,’ Turkish envoy says
Not too long ago Turkey was asking for Israeli support.
Russia Today – Russia may soon ink free trade pact with Israel
And now for some news from Al-Monitor. Why Turkey is losing hope in Syrian border town of Azaz. With the subhead:
While speculation continues about whether Turkey and Saudi Arabia will march into the Syrian war, Turkey is already fighting on two fronts without even entering Syria.
In the first, Turkey is launching heavy artillery fire at Syrian Democratic Forces advancing toward Azaz in northwestern Syria, while declaring that the objective is to stop the advances of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). On the second front, Turkey is allowing militants to cross into Syria, since the Syrian army cut off the Aleppo-Kilis corridor.
Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, when asked last week if Turkey would do anything to reopen the corridor, aroused curiosity by replying, “Wait for a few days; you will get your answer.” Naturally, his cryptic response fanned the debate over whether a military intervention is in the making.
Al-Monitor waited, and this is what we saw: The YPG first captured the Tishrin Dam south of Jarablus, Syria, crossed to the west of the Euphrates River and halted its advance. We are all aware that the Turkish government, to prevent the YPG from moving to the Jarablus-Rai region where the Islamic State maintains its only two border crossings to the rest of the world, had drawn a red line at the YPG crossing to the west side of the Euphrates.
Business Insider (BI) notes the obvious. The moves by the US to support the Kurds is harming US relations with the current Turkish government. One of the Obama administration’s biggest gambles in Syria is completely backfiring.
Turkey’s prime minister said on Monday that Ankara will not allow the strategic city of Azaz in northern Syria to fall to Kurdish YPG forces, promising the “harshest reaction” if the Kurds did not retreat.
His comments come two days after Turkish artillery began firing on YPG positions in northern Syria from Turkey’s southern border, targeting Menagh airbase near Azaz that the predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) had reportedly captured from Islamist rebel groups days earlier.
BI also says (Feb 3, 2016): ‘Weakest position in Syria in years’: Russia and Assad may have just delivered a decisive blow to Turkey.
Pro-government forces in Syria have reportedly broken a rebel siege of two villages northwest of Aleppo, effectively cutting off Turkey’s supply line to opposition groups operating in and around Syria’s largest city.
Government troops, accompanied by Iran-backed Shiite militias and Hezbollah forces, apparently reached the cities of Nubl and Zahraa with the help of heavy Russian airstrikes on Wednesday.
What do I think is going on? Well this is kind of far fetched now but my guess is that Turkey under its present government has become more trouble than it is worth. The same may be true of Saudi Arabia. The Saud’s export of jihadis is no longer welcome. If it ever was.
Update: 18 February 2016 1124z
Spengler chimes in.
As for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: its fragility has concerned Western planners for years. Let Allah figure that one out.
You should read it all. It is scathing with respect to America’s and especially Obama’s foreign policy. Spengler calls out our cult of “democracy can solve all political problems”.
Support for the Kurds is the most sensible thing we have done in that region for years.
You might also like a bit posted here in 2007, Oil Outlook, which mainly discusses Iran’s oil fields and their prospects.
Update: 18 February 2016 2120z
From 17 December 2015 US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said that the United States will provide equipment to the Kurds in northern Iraq in an attempt to help take back the Iraqi city of Mosu
From 21 October 2015 Kurdistan – A Land With No Jews Names Jewish Affairs Rep
Comments
3 responses to “Azaz Corridor”
And the Turkish view of American support for the Kurds : U.S. support for Syrian Kurds ‘a big strategic mistake,’ Turkish envoy says.
Perhaps Ergodan[spelling?] and his friends might stop to consider that courtesy of Ergodan’s conduct of foreign policy for the last decade, many in the US no longer consider Turkey an ally the US can depend on.
To me it is common sense to support the Kurds. It is icing on the cake that support for the Kurds discomfits Ergodan and his friends.
When I was in grad school, one of my classmates was a Turk who was the grandson of a White Russian general.
Can anything be salvaged out of the mess of Syria? I am reminded of “let’s you and him fight” w regard to the US and Syria.
Go, Kurds!
That’s a scrappy bunch of people. I’d actually call them freedom fighters (at least until I see what happens when they win).