Hillary Clinton does in fact hate Iowa, and little wonder.
Iowa has a well-earned reputation as an accurate early predictor of national election results:
…[I]f history is any guide, early national polls are far less valuable in understanding what is happening in the presidential contest than are reliable surveys of Iowa voters, such as the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.
I looked back to surveys in the summer and fall of 2007 to see how the national surveys and Iowa caucuses polls conducted by reputable firms fared in documenting public opinion trends and in predicting the direction of the Democratic and Republican races — and Iowa polls were the clear winners.
(It might be my computer, but I had a lot of trouble opening that link.)
But if the above analysis is true, then were I working for Hillary, I’d be insanely freaking out right now.
Because, Iowa polls show that Donald Trump beats Hillary Clinton in Iowa:
Iowa: Trump vs. Clinton NBC/WSJ/Marist
Trump 48, Clinton 41
Trump +7
And the polls also show that Bernie Sanders beats Donald Trump in Iowa:
Iowa: Trump vs. Sanders NBC/WSJ/Marist
Sanders 48, Trump 43
Sanders +5
I think this looks very bad for Hillary. If she loses to a showboating opportunist Republican who loses to an avowed socialist, I’d say her campaign is in trouble.
Comments
6 responses to “No wonder Hillary hates Iowa”
I assumed she would hate it because it’s full of farm peasants who don’t kowtow to her.
iowa is slowly turning red state as colorado nevada virginia florida and new mexico are turning blue. also arizona and texas are increasing their hispanic vote and in the near future will also turn blue. 100,000 minority kids turn voting age every month but few in places like iowa or wisconsin. the west is where red is turning blue. also blue states like california are going to universal registration for its citizens (not illegal aliens who don’t vote even when republicans try to bribe them to vote so they can arrest them to prove illegals are voting) and while this will not effect electoral college as red states make it harder to vote republicans will never win popular vote again making it impossible for a republican who wins the electoral vote from governing. look at the problems bush had as his legitimacy was questioned until the neo-cons got their second pearl harbor. what a coincedense!
Hmmm. I live in CO and as I recall we just dumped Dem. Senator Mark Uterus for GOP Senator Cory Gardner. And, if I remember correctly, the GOP took the State Senate away from the Dem’s in November. I’d say CO remains solidly purple.
Just me, but I deal a lot with first gen Mexican immigrants and they’re hardly solid blue voters. They tend to be socially conservative and, as many are hard working businessmen/women, they’re becoming increasingly fiscally conservative.
I don’t remember exactly, but I seem to recall a poll that had Trump with some not-insignificant percentage of Hispanic voters. I think the Dem’s were high off the two elections of President Left Wing Negro and assumed that the demographics were with them for evah. Unfortunately for them, they’ve petrified into the same old highbrow Democrats of the last century, kowtowing to the rich and dumping on the poor, regardless of skin tone.
road kill vote by mail kept dem. gov. and udall barely lost because he was told by democrat party money to lay off immigration issue to protect southern democrats(it didn’t work and cost him his seat) and 100 latinos turn 18 every day and 30 goppers die off each day. as for latinos you know that is like saying almost all the black people I see on fox news are conservative and hate obama!
A) Iowa residents have all of the candidates campaigning in their state, so the candidates (especially those without previous national exposure) have much more exposure to Iowans than to the rest of the country generally. A question “which of these X people, 2/3’s of whom you have never heard of, will you vote for?” is going to have skewed results in trying to predict what will happen in the later primaries and general election after the front-runners have been sorted.
B) Iowa and NH are the threshing floor. One cannot do well in the national election without first doing credibly well in Iowa.
No one can do it better than you.