Jay Cost addresses a point I’ve been making: pollsters are generally using 2008 turnout models (of registered voters) meaning Mitt is doing quite a bit better than the polls indicate.
Jay notes the 2004 D/R exit poll split was even, as it was in 2010, while the media polling average is D+5.5, which is much closer to the 2008 D+7 turnout.
In my opinion, Jay is a bit too generous to Democrats in correcting to a D+3 electorate for 2012 — the Tea-infused GOP has been very enthusiastic since 2009, so a repeat of 2004/2010’s even split seems more likely, meaning Mitt Romney probably enjoys something like a 3 point lead today.