A Radiation Safety Expert Says – Tokyo Uh Oh

A little bio of the radiation safety expert.

I am a licensed medical dosimetrist from the U.S. currently living in the Philippines. Given the recent extraordinary events unfolding in Japan, i’ve decided to express, to the best of my ability, the dangers associated with the nuclear powerplant crises in Fukushima and how it may affect the territory of the Philippines. After much discussion elsewhere, i have decided to basically live blog my observations and present them for those who are interested.

OK. Now how about Tokyo?

Much higher readings in parts of Tokyo vs a few days ago
According to a recent update from that facebook dude with his own personal geiger counter:

“2011-04-26 15:13: 0.716 micro-Sieverts/h. Location: Roof of Metropolis Office, Minato-ku, Tokyo. Conclusion: Elevated, but not dangerous.”

His Digilert 100 unit is one of the most reliable geiger counters on the market. His readings are 18 times higher than Tokyo historical norms. On a yearly basis, this would yield 630 millirem from local background alone. People have to remember that the sources of these high readings are from inhalable and ingestible fission products – not from a temporary visit to a high mountaintop. They should be avoided as much as reasonably possible, and every action should be taken to prevent these levels of exposure from reaching young children and infants.
It looks like the recent change in wind directions really are starting to manifest in higher readings. I don’t remember Tokyo reading this high since the initial massive discharge back in mid-March. Something tells me Tepco has been losing the fight big time recently but is not disclosing accurate dispersion and exposure data.
It’s time for everyone to start paying close attention to regional and global wind forecasts again.

And that is the real danger of this stuff. It lingers in the body for weeks or decades depending on the isotope and the circumstances. And the extra internal dose is especially hard on the recently conceived and growing children.
Commercial nuclear plants are not nearly safe enough in my estimation. They need to be intrinsically safe. Which is to say they can survive a shutdown without electrical power indefinitely.
We shouldn’t build any more of the old style plants except possibly for the Navy. Aboard ship in an emergency you have three shifts (actually 6 since watches are 4 hours) available instantly. Decisions will be made quickly. The captain expects it. He is a nuke too. Not only that he can order things done by the rest of the Navy. A commercial operation can not be run to that standard. It is not cost effective. Thus civilian plants need to be safer. And it wouldn’t hurt if military plants improved as well. If that is feasible.
And another point worth emphasis. It is not over for Tokyo. Let us be conservative and say the increased radiation happened over a period of 5 days. Fifty days at that rate and Tokyo becomes an exclusion zone. About the beginning of July. Godzilla.


Cross Posted at Power and Control


Posted

in

by

Tags:

Comments

5 responses to “A Radiation Safety Expert Says – Tokyo Uh Oh”

  1. Sigivald Avatar
    Sigivald

    Uh, so some debris was giving that reading – and at a range that looked damned near to contact.
    That looks like a considerable overinflation of risk to me – the way he tries to extrapolate that to “Tokyo” as if the whole city is remotely similar (despite the data source’s knowledge that it isn’t) doesn’t bode well.
    Looking over his blog, he seems to continually conflate momentary highs with constant rates.
    If this guy isn’t just lying about his background, he’s incompetent.
    Not buying his analyses.

  2. M. Simon Avatar

    Sigivald,
    All good points. But when it comes to accidents and designs I like to worst case the projections. It is an engineering habit.
    And suppose your point about hot spots is correct (likely but not sure) then in a few months or a year (if they can get the plants covered by then) there will be exclusion zones dotting Tokyo.
    Every single report similar to yours is premised “as of today”. I prefer to look down the road a bit further. And things are not under control at Fukushima.
    Water levels in the reactor 4 spent fuel pool are at safety limits, temperature still rising
    And if there is a fissioning core on the floor (impossible to rule out at this point in time given the data I have seen) then things are much worse than you have imagined and probably worse than I have predicted.

  3. rhhardin Avatar

    Dispersion is highly noisy because the stuff doesn’t mix except over thousands of miles. You get rivers of high concentration surrounded by large areas of very low or no concentration.
    So look for short peaks surrounded in time by not much of anything for long times, closer than thousands of miles.

  4. plutosdad Avatar
    plutosdad

    What do you guys think of this effort:
    http://wilwheaton.typepad.com/wwdnbackup/2011/04/help-me-help-safecast-help-japan.html
    The only thing I thought was, I am not aware of how much training there is to properly use a geiger counter. I am thinking, if people put their own thermometers outside and report temperature they’d be all over the place and wrong (measured under different conditions). Similarly, could untrained people give erroneous results? Is this something good? It sounds really interesting and potentially valuable, but I don’t know.

  5. M. Simon Avatar

    plutosdad,
    Geiger counters are not hard to use. You wave the wand around (so to speak) and look for variations from background.
    And yes I think it is a good idea even if the folks are untrained. If they find what they think is a hot spot the can call in the pros for a more thorough check.
    I’d say the lack of information is hurting those “in charge” because it reduces their credibility.