Welcome To The Treadmill

*And yes, I feel pretty bad posting on this while half the world is in turmoil.  However, if I can’t get over this I’ll be in turmoil.  So indulge me for a couple/three posts, and then I’ll hopefully calm down enough to turn my attention to the more important but less personal issues.*

Of course, it immediately occurred to me last night, after I went to bed, that I shouldn’t have said anything yesterday. This comes from three sources: the first is that I hate admitting being in a tough spot. I know that, you guys probably know that if you’ve been reading my blog. I drag on to the last possible point before going to the doctor, when I’m sick, for instance. It’s all part of the same thing.

That one is easy to dismiss. Jerry Pournelle would tell me that pride is a sin, and Jerry is right. That particular failing has got me into more trouble than all my other personality defects combined. So I can tell pride to shut up and take a hike.

But there is a more material problem with what I said yesterday. Half of you will be going “ooh. Publishers are late. They’re dishonest.” Or something like that. Well, no.

Actually at the moment, other than short stories, only one publisher could vaguely be considered late, and it would be a stretch. (Short stories have been getting later and later when it comes to payment. Yes, that is a problem, because short stories are how I make up short falls. Which I explain below.) It’s more that publishers don’t pay instantaneously. Few ever did, other than magazines and anthologies. And those, yeah, have got markedly slower. Publishers are at the mercy of chains paying and distributors paying. And if you’re going “Chains! Wasn’t there a chain in the process of implosion?” Yeah, there is. Plus none of that supply-system is particularly solid.

So, there was always a delay built into publishing payments, and now it is (from a payment that arrived eight months late, and not from where you’d expect it) worse.

What this means is that though I have three books due for delivery, writing them quickly and sending them out asap will help, but it won’t make up a cash flow issue. And unlike in years past I can’t make it up in short stories (in 2003 when otherwise unemployed, I made up over 3k from short stories) because there are fewer markets, and the ones still alive pay slower.

As to why there’s a cash flow issue – this is the part I think people might find interesting (maybe) because it’s one of the things so few people not in the field know.

You might – or might not – know this, but writers don’t get paid in one big chunk. When you hear that someone signed a million dollar contract, you shouldn’t imagine them getting a check for that much. From what I understand, (never having had such good fortune) a seven figure payment (or anything six figures, really) gets broken up into ten payments – so you might be getting a hundred thousand for ten years. Yes, we should all be so lucky, but it’s not a million in hand.

It used to be that under five figures you got your payment broken into two chunks. Nowadays, it’s three. And five figures is three as well.

Now, unless you’re fortunes fair child – and a few people are – and got a big advance for your first book, or unless you’re doing this as a dilettante, or are living in mommy’s and daddy’s basement or have a rich husband (I keep telling him to win the lottery. So far nothing) or wife, these days you’re going to need more than one book a year to stay alive.

If you were born under the sign of Dagon, the fish god, and your fortunes have always shown a marked tendency to dive, and therefore you were so fortunate as to have your first book come out a month after nine eleven and not even get unpacked in most chain stores, leaving you with computer numbers it took you a decade to bring to “beginner” levels, you write more than two books a year, even if your contribution to the household is minor compared to the husband who won’t buy the lottery. (No such thing as luck? Ah! Yeah, Heinlein was right, to an extent. I mean, I AM still employed, and given the numbers on my first books – trust me – most people wouldn’t be. I just worked harder and I think better, until the barrier broke. Though Baen picking me up at that point has to be counted as luck, even then. But, look, the first story I sold was sold FOUR times before I got a contributor copy – on the fifth. The others either the magazine or the publisher died. And I have other stories. Sign of Dagon, I tell you. Deep dive.)

The problem is that after five years of writing four to six books a year, last year I couldn’t force myself to. I tried. But my subconscious can be remarkably stubborn. Honestly, I’d have done better to take a scheduled vacation. Instead, I wrote one book. That book – given the present shambles in the industry and possibly other factors – sold for less than I expected. I’m not complaining, I’m glad it sold at all and the publisher’s contract is wonderful compared to others I’ve signed. BUT it sold for less than I expected. Mind you, even if it had sold for what my other books have sold, it would cause a break in the cash flow. Worse, the year before that, I’d done no proposals and no books on spec. I just did the books that were due (3, I think) and delivered them. And last year, though I did proposals, I did only three, and they only sold in the middle of the year.

It’s like this. On any given year, I’m receiving the second and third payment of the books delivered/books published. Because these are usually smaller amounts than what I get for a first payment, at the same time, to maintain my level of income, I need to sell about 20k of books in the first quarter of the year. Not only didn’t this happen this year – it didn’t happen last year.

What this means is that I took a break on the treadmill and all the counts flat lined, and so it needs to ramp up again – which I’m doing, or trying to – and until it gets up to speed, income will be subpar.

You’ll note I didn’t count royalties. There is a good reason for that. Except for two books, my royalties have been negligible. I understand it is so for most other authors at least outside Baen. And those royalties are even more erratically paid than advances, so you simply can’t count on them.

As far as I know – as far as I can tell, from the distribution end of the thing – Darkship Thieves and the Daring Finds Mysteries did/are doing really well. I just gave in the third Daring Finds, and I’m finishing the sequel to Darkship Thieves. Those might eventually pay me royalties, and if they continue doing well, the series might – eventually – be all I need. And I have great hopes for the vampire musketeer thing. (Poke around my blog. I posted about it … either last Saturday or Saturday before last.) If that one does well in ebooks, I will be quite well.

But meanwhile, while I’m ramping up to my former income, I’m making a lot less than I used to. Now, I know I said I’m not the primary money-earner in this family. Ah! I’m nowhere near primary. And, curiously, we not only qualified on this house without my income, but we bought less house – way less house – than they’d qualify us for. And, yes, we have a fixed rate.

The problem is that these days – I don’t care what the inflation index says. The inflation index can suck my toes – everything is costing a lot more. At least for us, it is. From food to energy to appliances. And we were hit with a series of emergencies that meant one major expense after another, for three months in a row (four, if you count vet emergencies.) And the month before that we had to take a costly trip for family reasons.

That has brought the shortfall to critical levels. And that’s why, even though my career seems to be on the way up, the finances are in a serious dive.

I’ve decided to go with the subscription. The storyteller’s bowl is a more … short term measure, and I can always try it in a month, if the subscription system is picking up too slowly to cover the short fall.

Yes, it is pride again. The short story subscription (I need to come up with a catchy name) is something where I feel you’ll get a really good value and, if it works out, might become something I do permanently and all parts benefit. I.e. say I get 2k subscribers – it should be possible, if I can reach them, because my lowest-selling book (small press, under a closed pen name) sold that and I know I have at least double that number and a bit more of “steady” readers. If I get that, I could afford to run slower on the treadmill and since I use short stories to build background and future history, would enjoy it more.

Also, if I can get anything like 2k or more subscribers (yes, I realize it will be a slow ramp up and I’ll have to advertise) I can end up paying friends for one or two stories a year and introducing them to the fans.

Writing two short stories a month shouldn’t be a problem. I was trained to do shorts and novels at the same time, and to do a short story a week. I think the reason I let it lapse is the lack of markets, which made me neglect the short stories. This was probably bad, as short stories are a great exercise to keep the skill limber.

Of course, if we get hit with one more emergency, or if anything else goes seriously wrong, I reserve the right to do storyteller’s bowl. And that is the non-prideful reason to hold it off. Because I might need it, if my back is against the wall. As a short-term cash bringer, it’s what writers do when they’re desperate. I’m worried and anxious, but not desperate yet. I think the “subscribe to Sarah” – someone for the love of heaven come up with a catchy name! – program might do what I need for now.

So, I’ll give it a whirl starting in… April. This weekend I’m going to Anomaly Con in Denver, so I can’t set it up, but we’ll set it up in the beginning of April. I’ll let you know.

*crossposted at According To Hoyt*