A thoughtful piece from BIll Ardolino over at Long War Journal, with an in-depth look at Iranian influence in Iraq — and its limits.
I’m not trying to sugarcoat the fact that Iran is exerting significant influence of armed, economic, political, and religious varieties in a post-Saddam Iraq. And there is little doubt that as the US draws down, these efforts will become bolder. But Iraqis – ranging from haughty Sunni supremacist sheiks who hate the Persians, to Shia politicians who maintain post-exile residences in Iran – prioritize their own interests.
A point seldom mentioned: Iraq is inevitably going to have the same corrosive effect on Iran’s autocrats that W Germany had on E Germany and S Korea has on N Korea. Both those repressive regimes had to guard their borders to keep their people in and freedom away — but millions of Shia Iranians make cross-border pilgrimages to Najaf and other holy sites in Iraq every year. Iran still claims to be a quasi-democracy, and brazenly stealing elections is causing increasing unrest, which will only be exacerbated by an example of free elections on their border.