When I was a kid, there were real numbers . . .

Despite my hatred of the slide rule, one of my fondest memories of the slide rule period was that there tended to be “statistics” (“official numbers” if you will) which scientists as well as lay people could consult.
The “unemployment rate” is officially estimated to range between 4% and 6%. (The current figure, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is 4.7%.) But this site claims it is actually a whopping 23%.
I’m using the above as an extreme example, by way of illustration. But what are we to make of increasingly vast divergences in what used to be considered factual data?
While most conservatives today would accept the government’s 4.7% unemployment figure, an ever larger number think the government’s immigration statistics are wrong, and they offer their own.

  • A year ago, the conservative Newsmax cited a Pew Study claiming there were 10 million illegal aliens.
  • This year, Pew claims there are 12 million.
  • The anti-illegal-immigrant Numbers USA still seems to maintain that there are 8 to 11 million.
  • But a Barron’s study cited by Michelle Malkin and many others claims there are 20 million.
  • As of this writing, The American Resistance claims that there are 28,472,970 illegal aliens in this country. Proprietor D.A. King writes elsewhere that the government numbers are not to be trusted:

    I think it obvious that many of the patriots involved with immigration reform realize the commonly stated illegal aliens statistics are low. Why we are stuck to 8-12 million as our figure for illegal aliens is hard for me to understand. Perhaps this column will generate the necessary debate to bring the real figures to the front.
    The official estimate of the illegal alien population has been regularly increased, last time in December 2003, by Homeland Security chief Tom Ridge, in a softening up action before the White House dropped its amnesty bomb. The ?8 -12 million? range replaced an already outdated 2000 census figure of 6-7 million [one that was later corrected to 8 million.]
    Almost immediately after the 2000 figures were released, at least one major immigration reform organization, issued its own calculation showing the absurdity of the census report. [2000 Census Shows that Illegal Alien Population Much Larger than Estimated by INS, FAIR press release, Feb 6,2001]
    In the post-Census era, some observers offered thirteen million illegals as a realistic figure.
    But that number did not catch on.
    I am not alone in the suspicion that various federal agencies are misleading trusting American citizens.
    We have allowed a government that permits the assault on our sovereignty to measure and report the level of damage that it, itself, is causing.
    If we continue that to be passive, we will pay the price for not resisting.

    Mr. King offers a strong and passionate argument, but as to the hard numbers, there’s more surmise than facts.

  • It should be pointed out that Mr. King’s 28 million figure makes WorldNetDaily appear almost “moderate” on this “issue.”
  • Issue it is; the numbers themselves are no longer statistics, but are themselves issues to be debated. Makes it rather tougher and tougher to have anything resembling a reasonable discussion.
    As I point all of this out, I should remind readers that I am not someone who trusts or accepts government figures at their face value. Or pronouncements of “experts.” I am a skeptic, and I am ever more skeptical over time, because experts themselves — even government experts — are biased. In my view, the most insidious kind of bias is the concealed variety which masquerades as “objectivity.”
    Even “scientific objectivity.” Global Warming is a perfect example of this. Many of the shrill claims made in the name of “science” have turned out to be exaggerated, and have been advanced by scientists whose minds are made up and who conceal any data which might encourage skepticism — to the point where scientists with dissenting views are actually banned from their conferences. (In the days of the slide rule, I was taught at UC Berkeley’s Department of Paleontology that we were still in the Ice Age, and that a period of global cooling was setting in, so not only have I been distrustful of the more recent turnaround, I suspect a bait-and-switch operation.)
    How many homosexuals are there in the United States? Gay activists claim as high as 10%, while their opponents claim as low as 1%. (Typical numbers debate here.)
    But my point is not to argue the merits of Global Warming, immigration, homosexuality, or unemployment. What bothers me is the disappearance of real, unbiased statistics in favor of shrill, ever-more-partisan ones.
    Statistics, in my view, are rapidly becoming opinions.
    I miss the good old days when they were facts.
    But what if I was duped as a young person?
    Maybe statistics weren’t facts even then.
    (Now that I think about it, I remember Rachel Carson. Paul Ehrlich. And other promoters of “scientific truth” . . .)
    While I could easily write a goofy satire about the now meaningless nature of numbers and statistics, there is a serious side to the problem. (Yes, “not knowing” is a problem.) I suspect that especially when coupled with existing information overload, the blurring of the line between fact and opinion by politically-contaminated numbers fosters a mental condition known as cognitive dissonance.

    . . .the perception of incompatibility between two cognitions, which can be defined as any element of knowledge, attitude, emotion, belief or value, or a goal, plan, or interest. The theory of cognitive dissonance holds that contradicting cognitions serve as a driving force that compels the mind to acquire or invent new thoughts or beliefs, or to modify existing beliefs, so as to minimize the amount of dissonance (conflict) between cognitions. Experiments have attempted to quantify this hypothetical drive.

    Because we are taught that statistics — hard numbers — are things we can all agree upon, we become disturbed when the statistics become arguments, because after all, they are not supposed to be arguments, but data. Hence, in our brains, this triggers a “does not compute” cycle which is deeply disturbing. Rather than succumb to burnout, the natural human tendency, in my view, is simply to choose sides. But this is itself less than satisfying to anyone who really wants to be honest, and I think it can lead to great stress, and it might be responsible for much of the anger that occurs when people get into arguments over “facts.” In logic, if there are competing statistics, neither set of which can be satisfactorily proven, then there is no factual basis upon which to have a rational argument. This means necessarily that the arguments will be based on emotion, as data — once facts — are now emotional. (This is tricky, of course, because it is also possible that a given statistic is correct, and that the person opposing it might be citing statistics that are entirely wrong. But the existence of increasingly biased statistics gives unreasonable people the green light to advance ever more fantastic statistics on the one hand, and to deny opposing statistics on the other.)
    I know that the idea of “emotional statistics” sounds like a contradiction, but that is the nature of cognitive dissonance.
    The father of cognitive dissonance argues that the problem can be resolved by adding missing information:

    When confronted with two belief cognitions that contradict each other, Festinger suggests the dissonance can be resolved by finding and adding a third piece of information relevant to the two beliefs.

    What if the missing third piece of information is the fact that the statistics causing the cognitive dissonance are not facts, but arguments?
    Wouldn’t that at least relieve stress?
    Maybe so. But might it also lead to post-modernist/deconstructionist-style nihilism?
    Don’t ask me, for I am not objective in these matters. I refuse to become a nihilist, a decon, or a pomo, because I am a proud, out-of-the-closet cynic who believes that there is such a thing as truth (elusive though it so often is).
    Cynicism is my way of being an optimist.
    (An internal caveat, though, is that my dark side is often tempted by emotionally satisfying numbers.)


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    7 responses to “When I was a kid, there were real numbers . . .”

    1. Raging Bee Avatar

      Better be careful with those “emotionally satisfying numbers,” otherwise you’ll end up with pi in your face, e?

    2. Eric Scheie Avatar

      I tested your theory in reverse, and I think you are right!
      Via Ball and Claw here’s pi to 50,000 places:

      3.
      141592653589793238462643383279502884197169399375105820974944
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      724743087304361951139611908003025587838764420608504473063129
      927788894272918972716989057592524467966018970748296094919064
      876469370275077386643239191904225429023531892337729316673608
      699622803255718530891928440380507103006477684786324319100022
      392978525537237556621364474009676053943983823576460699246526
      008909062410590421545392790441152958034533450025624410100635
      953003959886446616959562635187806068851372346270799732723313
      469397145628554261546765063246567662027924520858134771760852
      169134094652030767339184114750414016892412131982688156866456
      148538028753933116023229255561894104299533564009578649534093
      511526645402441877594931693056044868642086275720117231952640
      502309977456764783848897346431721598062678767183800524769688
      408498918508614900343240347674268624595239589035858213500645
      099817824463608731775437885967767291952611121385919472545140
      030118050343787527766440276261894101757687268042817662386068
      047788524288743025914524707395054652513533945959878961977891
      104189029294381856720507096460626354173294464957661265195349
      570186001541262396228641389779673332907056737696215649818450
      684226369036784955597002607986799626101903933126376855696876
      702929537116252800554310078640872893922571451248113577862766
      490242516199027747109033593330930494838059785662884478744146
      984149906712376478958226329490467981208998485716357108783119
      184863025450162092980582920833481363840542172005612198935366
      937133673339246441612522319694347120641737549121635700857369
      439730597970971972666664226743111776217640306868131035189911
      227133972403688700099686292254646500638528862039380050477827
      691283560337254825579391298525150682996910775425764748832534
      141213280062671709400909822352965795799780301828242849022147
      074811112401860761341515038756983091865278065889668236252393
      784527263453042041880250844236319038331838455052236799235775
      292910692504326144695010986108889991465855188187358252816430
      252093928525807796973762084563748211443398816271003170315133
      440230952635192958868069082135585368016100021374085115448491
      268584126869589917414913382057849280069825519574020181810564
      129725083607035685105533178784082900004155251186577945396331
      753853209214972052660783126028196116485809868458752512999740
      409279768317663991465538610893758795221497173172813151793290
      443112181587102351874075722210012376872194474720934931232410
      706508061856237252673254073332487575448296757345001932190219
      911996079798937338367324257610393898534927877747398050808001
      554476406105352220232540944356771879456543040673589649101761
      077594836454082348613025471847648518957583667439979150851285
      802060782055446299172320202822291488695939972997429747115537
      185892423849385585859540743810488262464878805330427146301194
      158989632879267832732245610385219701113046658710050008328517
      731177648973523092666123458887310288351562644602367199664455
      472760831011878838915114934093934475007302585581475619088139
      875235781233134227986650352272536717123075686104500454897036
      007956982762639234410714658489578024140815840522953693749971
      066559489445924628661996355635065262340533943914211127181069
      

      Now comes the hard part: whether I find the above number emotionally satisfying. Standing alone, it does little to satisfy my emotional needs. The only emotionally satisfying aspect of the above number is my belief that it is a correct computation of pi. (I am not about to double-check it, either.)
      But would I feel any differently about seeing 50,000 random digits that were not pi? I would find it less satisfying — but ONLY because if it weren’t pi, it would have no meaning. So, in truth, my emotional reaction to the above number is based on my perceptions. And that sucks, because that means that even pi must necessarily contain a certain human emotional component. (Something I hate being forced to acknowledge.)
      On top of that, pi is considered mathematically irrational!
      http://mathforum.org/dr.math/faq/faq.pi.html
      Such a conundrum is deeply disturbing.
      🙂

    3. Harkonnendog Avatar

      Damn that’s a big number… but it STILL isn’t right!
      I think statistics were once believed because the elite were believed to believe in honest, integrity, and ethics, beyond all else. IF that were true then they would report numbers, right or wrong, honestly, at the very least. So you could say they are true so far as the best experts can figure out, which is to say they are true since nobody can legitimately argue otherwise.
      Once those values became secondary to social justice, once that end justified any means, the academic elite, that was once the pool that made up experts, became nothing more than a recruiting ground for fighting ideologies. It was inevitbable then that expertise in a subject would become secondary to the ability to bullshit.
      So the quality of academia has consistenly spiraled downward, despite the fact that the pool of talent, those who go to college, has spiraled upward, for the last 50 years.
      But where this phenomeno REALLY is obvious, and detrmintal to society, is the media. Thank God for the internet.

    4. Eric Scheie Avatar

      Things were simpler in the old days, because they had to make what they had work within the limitations of technology.
      If you examine a slide rule, you will see that the number “pi” is simply the greek character at a point on the slide rule. No need to mess with endless decimals.
      They took us to the moon with those things . . .
      The more evolved the technology and the more unlimited the information, the greater the accuracy — but the more difficult the simple things become.
      The need to simplify is thus more important than ever before, but ever harder to accomplish.
      (Infinity is as easy as pi.)

    5. Harkonnendog Avatar

      I may also be imagining a past that never was.
      “f you examine a slide rule, you will see that the number “pi” is simply the greek character at a point on the slide rule. No need to mess with endless decimals.”
      Very cool. I think I saw a slide rule once. I thought it was some kind of egg timer at first… 🙂

    6. Crazy Diamond Avatar

      The most important things to know about any statistic are the method of measurement and the internal controls. I think the media rarely reports either because they understand neither, and it’s hard to get people riled up once you understand the terrible limitations under which a lot of these studies operate.

    7. Crazy Diamond Avatar

      The most important things to know about any statistic (for the purpose of evaluating it) are the conditions under which the study was performed and the internal controls. The media doesn’t report either because it understands neither, and it’s hard to get people riled up once they understand the severe limitations of a lot of studies.
      It probably wouldn’t help their egos any to have congresscritters falling over themselves laughing and saying “You want me to make a political decision based on that???”