The debates have not started yet, but has Lapham declared Kerry the winner? Depends.
Here’s Glenn Reynolds (noting that you can vote to declare Kerry the winner now, here):

Unless Kerry melts into a puddle on the floor, the media spin will be that he did well and helped his campaign.

I just turned on the TV and saw Ana Marie Cox (describing herself as a Maureen Dowd-to-be of the blogosphere, via crossing Matt Drudge and Glenn Reynolds), who just stated that the AP has already written the story of the debate. Glenn Reynolds was on too, but more subdued.
As to tonight’s debate, I’m pretty sure Kerry’s already done enough to win according to the AP’s high standards, but I’ll try to fast forward the TV, record the debate in advance and then rewind it so I can watch it before anyone else.
I’ll check carefully for the puddle on the floor, but I don’t think I’ll find one.
(Depends, I guess…..)