September is not November

Commenting on Bush’s amazing lead in the polls yesterday, Glenn Reynolds expressed skepticism:

It’s really hard for me to believe that Bush is doing as well, and Kerry as badly, as these state polls seem to suggest.

According to Zogby, such skepticism is more than justified. Here’s the latest Zogby chart:

After reviewing the data in more detail, Zogby concludes,

This is not an eleven-point race ? and never really was. My last poll showed the President with a three-point lead nationally and about 241 Electoral votes ? less than the 270 needed to win. Mr. Kerry has 264 Electoral voters, but neither candidate has hefty enough leads overall or in many of the battleground states.

I don’t think it’s a good idea for Republicans to get cocky. As G. Gordon Liddy likes to say, “two weeks is a long time in American politics.”