Classical Values :: Houston We Have a Logistics Problem

October 04, 2008

Houston We Have a Logistics Problem

If you are interested in developing wind power on a large scale, tens to hundreds of megawatts, you have a problem. A logistics problem.

In what has to be one of the biggest ironies surrounding alternative energy, many of the objections to wind energy focus on its effect on nature. Yet while the critics fret about the birds, the views and the noise, there's a much bigger barrier to wind on the horizon, one that many of its biggest proponents haven't yet taken into account. Wind energy, it seems, is starting to become a victim of its own success.

"The worldwide demand for wind energy equipment is outstripping supply," says John Dunlop, senior technical services engineer for the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA). The manufacturing base that produces the huge structural components, blades, generators and gearboxes that make up today's high-tech windmills simply can't keep up with the number of planned and ongoing installations. Dunlop points out wind turbines purchased today won't likely be delivered until 2011 or 2012. "That's the lead time right now," he says.

Those lead times are confirmed by key components suppliers too. "It's more like 2012 in most cases," says Parthiv Amin, president of Winergy Drive Systems, a subsidiary of Siemens Energy & Automation and maker of the gearboxes and power transmission components used in wind machines.

So how long does it take to build a factory that can take steel forgings and turn them into suitable gears and gear boxes? About three or four years. The tolerances are tight and the weight limits are similar to those found in aerospace. How about the generators? The same. So for the next four years or so wind installations are going to be limited to those already contracted for. Some one should tell Boone Pickens before he gets carried away with delusions of grandeur. Ramping up wind is not something that will get done in a few years. Not even in the decade Mr. Obama promises. It will take five or ten decades and any politician who promises you different is lying to you.

Cross Posted at Power and Control

posted by Simon on 10.04.08 at 06:00 AM

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Comments

Actually I understand Pickens already has his wind generators ordered and will get them well before 2012.

But with Pickens it is hard to say. If the demand is high enough he can simply sell the generators to someone else. Just like a futures contract.

He is really betting on massive government funding for renewables. And where he intends to operate in Texas he won't have the NIMBYs to contend with.

K · October 4, 2008 03:53 PM

In 2007, according to the EIA, wood provided more electricity than wind.

The same limits on production of generation equipment happened with gas turbines during the 90's and early 00's. There were long order queues and customers were so eager for equipment that they were taking to buying smaller companies ahead of them in the delivery queue to redirect their delivery spots.

Of course, with higher natural gas prices, that market collapsed. With the government incentives-driven wind power market, the same collapse could (and should) happen too. The manufacturers know this and are reluctant to commit the capital to increase capacity.

Whitehall · October 6, 2008 05:16 PM

> The manufacturers know this and are reluctant to commit the capital to increase capacity

Herr Obama sez yu vill bild ze wind generators und yu vill LIKE IT, or he vill set ze SS Energe-gruppen-poliz on yu, und yu vill vind up scrubbing ze oil off ze fish in ze Prinz Villiam Zound.

No, it doz not matter if zat vuz decadez ago. Yu zot zis wuz zuppost to accomplish zumzing ozzer zen tu instill proper fear intu yu?

Obloodyhell · October 9, 2008 09:22 AM