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May 11, 2008
"a wonderful new voice selling old, discredited ideas"
That's what the McCain campaign is saying about Barack Obama, and it seems to be paying off. Defining one's opponent is a key task of any campaign, and simply put, McCain has had a long head start. As early as Feb. 12--the day McCain and Obama each won primaries in Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C. -- McCain suggested Obama was guilty of hollow promises and a messianic self-image.I like that last line. I'm sure the McCain campaign enjoys the irony of knowing that the Hillary campaign has already laid much of the groundwork for them. The 3:00 a.m. phone call, Hillary's arm-waving "messianic" video -- these could almost be recycled. So can the "inexperience" message: On Fox News Channel's "The O'Reilly Factor" on Thursday, McCain was asked what Obama's main weakness is as a candidate. "Inexperience," he replied. "I think inexperience and lack of judgment, and a record that shows that--whether it be showing a desire to sit down with the president of Iran, who has articulated his country's commitment to the extinction of the state of Israel, [or] wanting to raise people's taxes."And then there's Obama's puzzling and self-contradicting call for limited strike forces in Iraq: On "Morning Joe" on MSNBC in April, McCain, a former Navy fighter pilot, responded with derision to Obama's call for leaving a limited strike force in Iraq. "I think somebody ought to ask what in the world he's talking about, especially since he has no experience or background at all in national security affairs," McCain told host Joe Scarborough.McCain is in the position of being able to recycle Hillary's old attacks, but in a more credible manner: Some of McCain's arguments about Obama have already been tried by Clinton, who has portrayed Obama as inexperienced and unlikely to get big things done.And different audiences are impressed by different things. John McCain and Hillary Clinton had very different military experiences. While McCain didn't share Hillary's combat experience in Bosnia, I think it's fair to say that being shot down and tortured for years as a POW in Vietnam beats merely knowing someone who bombed the Pentagon during that same period. Right now, there's a lot of doom and gloom in conservative GOP circles. Newt Gingrich was particularly pessimistic last week, and Fred Barnes has more today. But can McCain somehow remain the underdog? America loves an underdog. Also, as M. Simon noted, the vast American middle is "RINO turf." Factor in McCain's heroic service to his country, and add the anticipated vicious attacks from the left, and he might be able to defy the conservative doomsayers. Hmmm.... I'm thinking that if the right wing MDS machine would be cooperative enough to turn up the volume and step up their attacks on McCain, that might be enough to clinch his victory. posted by Eric on 05.11.08 at 09:02 AM
Comments
Hillary is doing well with the type of voter willing to cross-over for McCain: tough, scrappy, and willing to fight it out to the bitter end. Even with all the 'new' voters that Obama has signed up, the 'youth' vote is always the ones to sign up early (Anderson comes to mind, but Perot to a certain extent) and then have problems showing up in the general. The States that HRC has done well in are generally more towards the R side of the house, or are of the 'Blue Dog' Democrat style. HRC can contest those against McCain, while Obama will have a hard time doing so. And that 40% HRC support that says they will not vote for Obama has got to be troubling - his 'hope & change' message isn't working with them, and is, in fact, disenchanting them. Then there is 'donor fatigue' which is already a problem on the D side: their donor base is pretty much tapped out for what can be spent in an election year, both by FEC limits and by pocketbook expense limits. On the R side there is grassroots alienation which dates back starting in 2006 and increased in 2007 due to the current efforts of the man who will be their nominee. That base has not come back, leaving the 'big donors' as the majority backers of the R party. Obama, to break out, has to do something other than 'hope & change': he hasn't stuck a thing to it and the stuff sticking to him is getting harder to peel off. And if he starts to waffle, as has happened with his foreign policy views (now coming to accept the wisdom of Hillary! and John Edwards) he will become the 'same old, same old' in a very short time. Tacking 'to the center' means heading right, and that will start to lose him those newly registered, young voters very quickly - the 'net generation short-attention span theater voters. And if Rezko turns States Evidence and seeks witness protection, the entire Chitown machine may start to find itself in a nasty position, Obama included. It is amazing that a man with so few votes and no discernable view of government has gotten this far... and those things that are still coming to light makes how he has done that look very much like the 'machine politics' of old. You know, where a few, well monied party bosses actually picked the chosen nominee and got backing for him so that he would do their bidding? ajacksonian · May 11, 2008 12:30 PM McCain seems like a decent enough guy. But his voice bores me silly. And he needs to lose the ads with him and Dubya; they just make him look old and stupid. Karen · May 11, 2008 10:30 PM AJacksonian - It's kind of odd, too, how Obama (an essential blank slate) has gotten so high so fast in the Democratic food chain. The cynic in me thinks it's a sacrifice play by the DNC - they're aware that Hillary's going to really do a number on the credibility of the Democratic Party if she gets elected, (basically, she's going to kill it off...) so they're doing a poison pill routine with someone who LOOKS a lot better and can win the nomination, even if he can't make it in the general election. And it says a lot that they'd sacrifice a shot at the Presidency in order to keep Hillary out. I think she's really, really impressed a lot of folks over the years... JLawson · May 12, 2008 07:24 AM Post a comment
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Obama isn't a wonderful new voice. He's brimming full of helium and it's obvious from the first second of listening.
There's a vast audience divide on this matter, with vibrating women on one side.
The wonderful new voice phrase is aimed only at those.
What it needs is something for the full of crap half of the divide. The new voice rhetoric just makes McCain full of crap too.