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April 14, 2008
Restoring my traditional pessimism
In a post titled "Be careful what you wish for, Rush," Dave Kopel warns that the prolonged scrapping is making Hillary look better and better qualified to be president: ....I think that that the extended primary campaign is making Senator Clinton into a stronger, more appealing candidate.(Via Glenn Reynolds.) Moreover, the polls appear to confirm what I've been dreading -- that if Hillary Clinton beats Obama, she'll likely beat McCain in the fall: The Real Clear Politics polling averages already suggest that if the election were held today, Senator Clinton would beat Senator McCain in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and that Senator Obama would lose both of those states to Senator McCain. You've got to go back to 1960 to find a candidate who won the general election while losing Ohio, and in 2008 it would be very tough to defeat a candidate who won both Ohio and Pennsylvania. Senator Clinton is effectively using bitter-gate not only to improve her already-solid chances of winning the Pennsylvania primary, but to strengthen her general election message as a traditional Democrat who embraces the best of America's past, present, and future.All I can say is that this sucks bad. Despite her "message," Hillary is not a traditional Democrat; she's a 1990s Clinton Democrat, corrupt as corrupt can be, and she and her husband are doing a Peronist end-run around the 22nd Amendment. For the Clintons, I guess, that's traditional. Hell maybe they are traditional. (A scary thought. So much for the word "traditional.") What worries me is that with Obama out of the way, recalcitrant anti-McCain Republicans will be able to breathe easy about sitting it out. Damn, just as he was emerging as the one guy who might be able to unite the GOP and their base, Obama just had to let loose with the bitter bullshit. I know I'm sounding like a broken record again, but for years I've seen Hillary as inevitable, and for a while I thought maybe she wasn't, but then she was again. And now she is again. Well, M. Simon still seems to think that Obama is still inevitable, but I don't share his sense of...of... optimism? If they dump Obama there will be riots. Fires. Blood in the streets.No, I can't really call that optimism, can I? See what this election is doing? I can't even use ordinary words anymore. Maybe I should hope pessimistically that optimism will be a bitter pill. posted by Eric on 04.14.08 at 04:19 PM
Comments
I think Obama has ruined the brand. From Instapundit: ANOTHER UPDATE: In Slate: "When I went back there, and visited similar small towns in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia, one thing I heard over and over—from registered Democrats!—was that their national party leaders were elitists who couldn't seem to relate to their struggles. Well, well, well, the Democrats have just done a great job of telling McCain how to win back the Reagan Democrats. Not just focus grouped. Market tested. And his campaign didn't have to spend a dime to find out. The fact that McCain has been holding back, waiting for his opening is perfect. As I have been saying here and over at PaC and in numerous comments around the net - Obama didn't just ruin his campaign. He has ruined the brand. I remember six months ago when Democrats had a lock on the election. The only question now for Democrats is: which candidate will do the least damage down ticket. Tough choice. M. Simon · April 14, 2008 06:01 PM Don't forget Hillay's flip floppery on guns. That will not sell in PA or OH. Obama can't attack from that direction. McCain can. M. Simon · April 14, 2008 06:09 PM The thing I worry about most is what happens (if)when Obama loses the general.Just look at the reactions to Gore's and Kerry's losses,it will be much worse than that. flicka47 · April 15, 2008 04:37 AM "No, I can't really call that optimism, can I?" Yes, you can, because it is not going to actually happen exactly that way. The most likely outcome is that the superdelegates will not be stupid enough to commit party suicide by voting against the popular vote, or the delegate count. If somehow they do, then there will likely be commotion at the convention. However, actual rioting is unlikely. What is more likely is intraparty bitterness, with Obama's supporters royally pissed. In that case, McCain's best bet is to push an issue like public school vouchers hard, and watch the democratic party lose its stranglehold on the Black vote. (They may still have a big advantage, but it is unlikely to be so lopsided as it is now.) Finally, its not like Clinton isn't damaging herself too. Don't worry, Republican strategists have been anticipating a Clinton fight for years. That Tuzla thing is just the latest in the gigantic Republican file marked "Clinton."
MW · April 15, 2008 09:20 PM Post a comment
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I have thought since just after the 2004 elections that Hillary would be our next president, if for no other reason than she and Bill have no limits in their quest for power. Of course, I never thought she'd run as pitiful a campaign as she has. It's probably a good thing for her that Obama is an elitist Marxist.