Premature withdrawal syndrome?

Matt Drudge sometimes pushes sensationalized stories, and I can think of few stories more likely to cause a sensation among political junkies than this:

TALK OF HILLARY EXIT ENGULFS CAMPAIGNS
Mon Jan 07 2008 09:46:28 ET

Facing a double-digit defeat in New Hampshire, a sudden collapse in national polls and an expected fund-raising drought, Senator Hillary Clinton is preparing for a tough decision: Does she get out of the race? And when?!

"She can't take multiple double-digit losses in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada," laments one top campaign insider to the DRUDGE REPORT. "If she gets too badly embarrassed, it will really harm her. She doesn't want the Clinton brand to be damaged with back-to-back-to-back defeats."

Why would a "top campaign insider" be even talking to Drudge about such a sensitive thing?

There's more, and another "top" source from the Edwards campaign:

Meanwhile, Democrat hopeful John Edwards has confided to senior staff that he is staying in the race because Hillary "could soon be out."

"Her money is going to dry up," Edwards confided, a top source said Monday morning.

MORE

Key players in Clinton's inner circle are said to be split. James Carville is urging her to fight it out through at least February and Super Tuesday, where she has a shot at thwarting Barack Obama in a big state. But others close to the former first lady now see no possible road to victory, sources claim.

Developing...

I don't know how well developed it is. But quitting after a lousy result in the Iowa caucuses sounds a bit premature, so color me skeptical.

But what if it turns out to be true? It seems so out of character for Hillary to be acting like this. What on earth might be going on?

I'm thinking that if Hillary is considering an early exit, this might confirm Roger L. Simon's theory (via Glenn Reynolds) that Bill does not want Hillary to win.

The Anchoress looked at this in considerable detail, and I have to say I never entertained seriously the possibility that Bill Clinton might not want Hillary to win. I always assumed he wanted nothing more than to get back into the White House, and that the Hillary candidacy represented a Wallace-Peronist strategy to do an end-run around the 22nd Amendment.

Hmm....

Is it possible that Bill may have certain unconscious impulses?

MORE: According to this report, "there is acrimony between Hillary's advisers and her husband Bill's team."

AND MORE: Barack Obama's Secret Service protection has been beefed up (as it should be):

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- Secret Service presence has increased for Sen. Barack Obama since his dramatic win in Iowa, amid fears over the safety of the man seeking to become America's first black president.

The Illinois senator's security now rivals that of President Bush, with a dozen Secret Service agents wearing dark suits and earpieces leading bomb-sniffing dogs through event venues, sweeping all equipment brought by journalists and flanking the candidate as he plunges into crowds of supporters.

"For many black supporters, there is a lot of anxiety that he will be killed, and it is on people's minds," said Melissa Harris-Lacewell, a Princeton University professor of political science and contemporary black culture.

I worried about this last month but few readers shared my concern.

I'm glad the Secret Service is stepping up security.

MORE: Writes the New York Times's Sarah Wheaton:

Today, in Dover, Francine Torge, a former John Edwards supporter, said this while introducing Mrs. Clinton: "Some people compare one of the other candidates to John F. Kennedy. But he was assassinated. And Lyndon Baines Johnson was the one who actually" passed the civil rights legislation.

The comment, an apparent reference to Senator Barack Obama, is particularly striking given documented fears among blacks that Mr. Obama will be assassinated if elected.

Phil Singer, a Clinton spokesman said: "We were not aware that this person was going to make those comments and disapprove of them completely. They were totally inappropriate."

Mrs. Clinton's expression did not change noticeably when Ms. Torge made the comment.

You'd think they'd know better than to make statements which could be taken as insinuations.

MORE: Editor and Publisher questions the responsibility of discussing the assassination factor, but only in the context of the Washington Times:

With Barack Obama suddenly the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination -- and drawing comparisons to John and Robert Kennedy -- concern has climbed about the issue of candidate vulnerability in crowds, especially this candidate. The Washington Times took a long look at it today, but some may wonder if this kind of attention -- mentioning that "Obama assassinate" already gets 2000 Google links -- may only increase the threat.
2000 links? I get 285,000. (Substitute Bush and the number is well over a half a million.) Maybe they mean Google News.

Anyway, why single out the Washington Times for blame?

MORE: Newsbusters links a Huffington Post writer who believes that if Obama is elected, "members of Blackwater security services or Haliburton would somehow decide to assassinate him."

Why did Editor and Publisher ignore that?

And the British Telegraph quotes a New Hampshire voter's fear that "a Southern racist might shoot him."

(While that's possible, I think the public's assassination memories may be fading, because I distinctly remember that JFK was shot by a Communist, RFK was shot by a disgruntled Palestinian, Malcolm X was shot by Nation of Islam members, and Martin Luther King by a white man born in Illinois.)

UPDATE: Pajamas Media has a nice roundup of links on the rumors of Hillary quitting.

AllahPundit thinks it's a ploy, and James Joyner is extremely skeptical:

Even aside from the fact that this is on the Drudge report, this strikes me as wildly implausible. Unlike earlier reports that Fred Thompson would drop out after poor finishes in the early states, there's just no reason for Clinton to quit. As noted in the previous post, she's got more cash on hand than Obama and Edwards combined. And she's got huge leads in several big states.

If, as looks increasingly likely, she loses badly tomorrow in New Hampshire, she's going to feel as if the wind has been knocked out of her. She expected to win these two easily and then march on to a coronation. But the idea that she can't afford to stay in the race through February 5th is just silly.

I'm wondering whether there's a relationship between the rumors of quitting and the hints of tears.

posted by Eric on 01.07.08 at 11:24 AM





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Comments

"Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign stop was interrupted Monday when two men stood in the crowd and began screaming, "Iron my shirt!" during one of her final appearances before the New Hampshire primary..."
>
I wonder which two Classical Values bloggers were in New Hampshire today. God help us! Rightwingers are such ignorant fools.


YogiBarrister   ·  January 8, 2008 02:31 AM

Well, when you are viewed as the "front-runner," and you are upset by another candidate in an early contest, you have to recover quickly... If not, you lose major momentum and support, and that makes it more likely that you will have to drop out.

This is what almost happened to Bob Dole, in 1996, on the Republican side. [The GOP Establishment weighed in very heavily, following Iowa and New Hampshire, to push him into the nomination.]

Howard Dean was sunk, in a similar way, after he stumbled in the early contests, during the last Democrat presidential nomination race.

Hopefully, this will happen to Hillary as well.

Aakash   ·  January 8, 2008 07:05 PM

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