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June 17, 2007
Slow Motion Singularity: 1968
From 2001: A Space Odyssey, by Sir Arthur C. Clarke The great dinosaurs had long since perished when the survey ship entered the Solar System after a voyage that had already lasted a thousand years... If you'll allow that evolution really does happen, and that intelligent life can endure, intelligently, for millions of years, then the above doesn't seem at all farfetched. Indeed, the first few steps seem inevitable. As for the lattices of light and subtle mist stuff, who can say? Not me, that's for sure. We still don't know enough to say it's either possible or impossible with an acceptable degree of certainty. But we're getting there. Where the Singularitarian Kids lose me is their insistence that they will live to see it. Frankly, I question the timing. What looks to be possible in three hundred years, probable in three thousand, a sure thing in three million, looks flatly impossible in a mere thirty. And yes, I do know about Moore's Law. Concluding, let's just back up a bit textually, eh? Those who had begun that experiment, so long ago, had not been men--or even remotely human. But they were flesh and blood, and when they looked out across the deeps of space, they had felt awe, and wonder, and loneliness. As soon as they possessed the power, they set forth for the stars. In their explorations, they encountered life in many forms, and watched the workings of evolution on a thousand worlds. And they saw how often the first faint sparks of intelligence flickered and died in the cosmic night. Ah. The good old stuff. posted by Justin on 06.17.07 at 04:45 PM
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I've only seen the movie, but I still have no idea what the monolith is. Perhaps if I watched it while on drugs it would all make sense. Darren · June 21, 2007 07:37 PM Post a comment
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Ah, but it doesn't all have to happen in thirty years in order for one to live to see it. All it takes is some progress in lifespan extension in the next thirty years, say enough to get an extra fifty years. Then in those fifty years, enough further extension to get another hundred.. Repeat ad infinitum.
Sure, there's a lot of luck involved, like not getting hit by a bus in the interim. But flatly impossible?
An appropriate quote from Arthur C. Clarke himself: "If an elderly but distinguished scientist says that something is possible, he is almost certainly right; but if he says that it is impossible, he is very probably wrong."
Pax