|
April 15, 2007
Understanding the statistics
Clayton Cramer's link to my last post about the gun issue prompted a few additional thoughts. I'd like to think that sooner or later, people who have common sense would perceive that it's a blatantly racist claim to say that black people are unable to resist being turned into criminals by guns. Instead, the idea is promoted that opposition to gun control is racism! How I wish such demagoguery didn't work, but it does. I'm also continuing to wonder whether statisticians have (in their various "studies") been lumping law abiding gun owners with criminals who own illegal guns. If they have, aren't the data inherently unreliable? Isn't it like lumping legal drug users in with illegal drug users? When my mom had cancer, she was prescribed certain narcotics that some street users would probably be willing to kill each other over under the right circumstances. But wouldn't it be laughable for a statistician to make pronouncements about what "drug crimes" my mother (or any other legal drug user) would have been "likely" to commit based on statistics gleaned from the entire morphine-using population? I think it would. That's because it is manifestly incorrect to extrapolate statistics gleaned from a criminal population and then project those statistics onto a law abiding population. To do so is wrong logically, and wrong statistically. I'm reminded of one of the criticisms of the Kinsey study (that it applied statistics gleaned from the male prison population to the general male population). This is not to say that the data gleaned from studying criminals is not valuable; only that it should be presented in the proper context. The oft-quoted Kellerman study has also been criticized for precisely this reason: ....the population is composed of a minority subgroup which has a high risk of homicide, and a relatively high gun ownership rate. This subgroup is composed of 'career criminals', gang members and others who have a repeated history of criminal activity. The majority subgroup has a low risk of homicide and a lower gun ownership rate. This majority is the general law-abiding public.Nevertheless, the argument is made that guns cause these law-abiding people to commit crime even though the crimes are committed by criminals using guns that were already illegal. (In Philadelphia, 80-85 percent of shootings occur when criminals shoot other criminals with already-illegal guns.) It's one thing to make this argument, but not with data claimed drawn from a non-representative sample. Of course, it has to be remembered that there is a growing movement in favor of abolishing prison -- even for violent crime. While that's not entirely mainstream, like a lot of activism, it manages to trickles down in the form of projects like this, which lobby for ever-lighter sentences, even foir serious crimes. Editorial-style news "stories" routinely preach about the need for "forgiveness." The result is that criminals are increasingly not being locked up for violent crimes. It's easy to see why those who advocate freedom for violent criminals would want gun control. They are intelligent enough to realize that they too have to live in the world they want to create. So, in a certain sense, their use of misleading statistics becomes understandable. (Not excusable, though.) posted by Eric on 04.15.07 at 10:00 PM |
|
April 2007
WORLD-WIDE CALENDAR
Search the Site
E-mail
Classics To Go
Archives
April 2007
March 2007 February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 June 2006 May 2006 April 2006 March 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 April 2005 March 2005 February 2005 January 2005 December 2004 November 2004 October 2004 September 2004 August 2004 July 2004 June 2004 May 2004 April 2004 March 2004 February 2004 January 2004 December 2003 November 2003 October 2003 September 2003 August 2003 July 2003 June 2003 May 2003 May 2002 See more archives here Old (Blogspot) archives
Recent Entries
Horrendous crime, double standard, missing details
Gun Control Means Hitting Your Target "Allahhu Akbar" in SLC? psychology of the shooter Who is to blame? hair raising economic schemes Pass the lard! And don't praise the ammunition! Can "responsible journalism" become irresponsible? In The Right Hands In The Wrong Hands
Links
Site Credits
|
|
And if imprisonment is eliminated, how long before the death rate among suspects prior to or during apprehension skyrockets?
When there is no way to keep a violent person segregated from society, the ultimate segregation will be enforced.