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January 29, 2007
An Incentive, Not A Deterrent
Bernard Lewis says that MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) does not work with people who want to be destroyed. Outdated Cold war concepts, such as mutually assured destruction (M.A.D) are irrelevant when it comes to Iran , because the Iranian president and his circle see such a scenario "as an incentive, not a deterrent," renowned scholar Bernard Lewis said during a lecture Monday evening at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem.Let me note that the Jews who believe you can rush the Messiah are few in number and do not run any countries. I do think that the Iranian people will have to change Iran. However, there are some Iranian people who think that a push from the USA might be helpful. WASHINGTON - While United States Minister of Defense Robert Gates, along with many specialists on the matter, warn against a military attack on Iran, which in their view will entrap the Iranian people behind the Ayatollah regime, Iranian student leader Amir Abbas Fakhr-Avar believes an attack will have the reverse result.So he does expect at least street protests in opposition to an American bombing. He also thinks thtere is a better way. He testified before the US Senate, met with President George W. Bush and senior administrators in the State Department and the Pentagon, as well as with experts and analysts on Iran, like Professor Bernard Lewis and others.Publication ability could mean nothing more than copiers. Or fast printers hooked to computers. At 30 pages a minute you can do 1,000 pages in about 35 minutes. Spread that around to 10 or 20 sites and you have a clandestine printing industry. Easily disguised as a business. So what Amir see as his role in the USA? Our main purpose and help we can give the administration is to help them to decide better. They don't know that society that well, they really don't know the regime or the people. We need to help them - we being the opposition outside Iran.Once burned twice shy they say. Not the mobiles, not the cell phones. They don't have the technology to stop it, and there are too many. Right now they're busy controlling each other's mobiles - the mullahs, so that's why some of these guys are doing it freely. However, landlines, they do control. But mobiles there are problems.Say. Where have I heard that before? One must not underestimate the animal cunning, even in people with low IQ. What we need to do then is flood Iran with cheap or free satellite connections. Uplink and down link. I think we have the technology for that. Ahmadinejad is stupid. We've known him for the past 6-7 years from the political arena in Iran. When he was the mayor Tehran his plans were so stupid that people laughed at him. One of them was to pave the roadway that the 12th imam traveled on. He took all the intersections and removed the traffic signals so everyone can go where they want. A few months later they decided it was stupid and put them all back. It cost something like 2 billion dollars.I wonder who got the paving contracts? Amir says there is a generation gap in Iran. People in Iran react the opposite of what the regime says. If the regime says it's day, they'll close their eyes and say it's night. Whatever the Islamic regime fights against- that becomes important to the Iranians. I don't represent the entire population of course, but I can give you an idea of what are the sentiments. I was elected by the students and I speak for them. Remember, 70 percent are under age 30.Wow. Israel's fight with Hizballah has cheered the anti-government Iranians. That is a side effect from last summer's war I wasn't even aware of. I hope the Iranian people get the tools they need. And, if necessary, the mullahs get a good hard shove to help them out the door. I remember reading a few years ago an Iranian stating that if an American attack kept civilian casualties under 1,000 it would be worth it. Faster please. Cross Posted at Power and Control posted by Simon on 01.29.07 at 10:29 PM |
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A lot of folk were for Israel's action last summer. Even the Saudis gave it a quiet thumbs-up. They don't like Jews, true, but they like the idea of apocalypticist Shi'a running the whole Fertile Crescent a good deal less. What we see here is that the cryptoZoroastrian nominal Shi'a in Persia aren't much enamoured of Arab-based fanaticism either.