Classical Values :: This fall, beat Bush!

September 13, 2006

This fall, beat Bush!

I'm puzzled over something. While I've never been quite certain exactly how to define the Republican "base," I'm wondering whether the term has become code language for conservative opposition to President Bush. If so, then considering Bush's narrow victory in the last two elections, will this emerging base of dissenters be able to ensure victory if they gain control of the Republican Party?

In a couple of elections yesterday, the dissident base's candidate lost one election, and won in another:

PROVIDENCE, R.I. -- Republicans have a better chance of holding onto Rhode Island's Senate seat with a primary victory by the moderate incumbent.

The Republican establishment supported Lincoln Chafee over his conservative challenger. While Chafee still faces a tough contest against Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse, polls showed Whitehouse was almost assured a victory if Chafee lost.

In another moderate-versus-conservative matchup in Arizona, the moderate lost. National GOP leaders supported Steve Huffman to succeed moderate Jim Kolbe, but voters chose Randy Graf who made opposition to illegal immigration the center of his campaign.

I don't know how accurate these polls are, as I'm largely unfamiliar with the demographics of Rhode Island. But if Pennsylvania is any indication, the victory of Arlen Specter (considered a RINO by most of the base) over the base's current leader Pat Toomey was followed by Specter's defeat of Jim Hoeffel by a considerable margin -- in a state in which Bush was defeated by Kerry.

As to the base's victory in Arizona, will that be followed by a victory in November? The WaPo's Chris Cillizza doesn't think so:

...former state Rep. Randy Graf came out on top in the Republican primary in Arizona's open 8th congressional district -- virtually ensuring that Democrats will pick up that seat in November.

If that is in fact as "virtually assured" as Cilliza says, then the base would appear to be putting a single issue ahead of party victory.

Does that make political sense?

In a post titled "Arizona GOPs Say 'Stop Bush!'" Mickey Kaus looks at the situation, and asks about the base:

Isn't this more evidence that opposition to Bush's immigration plan is a powerful base-mobilizer for the GOP?

(A phenomenon Glenn Reynolds calls "Republicans on the march to stop Bush.")

If opposition to Bush is the way to mobilize the base, I'm wondering what that will mean in the fall.

(I mean, Bush still being president and all that.)

I'm also wondering whether the base might be suffering from its own version of BDS, to be cured only by a Hillary Clinton presidency, but I've already kvetched about it repeatedly. At the risk of getting ahead of the base, I'm beginning to think they more than want Hillary; they might need her.

That's because being a minority in the minority beats having to be a minority in the majority.

posted by Eric on 09.13.06 at 12:43 PM

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Comments

"If so, then considering Bush's narrow victory in the last two elections, will this emerging base of dissenters be able to ensure victory is the gain control of the Republican Party?"

I'm thinking that perhaps the "is the" in the final clause should be "if they"?

Sigivald · September 13, 2006 01:37 PM

I think I got it before your comment, but thanks! (I appreciate your being able to see what I meant, as it looked incomprehensible.)

Eric Scheie · September 13, 2006 01:41 PM

I live here in AZ. and as far as I see, there is no real "anti-Bush" sentiment amongst any GOP faction.

There is a disappointment over Bush's stand on illegal immigration, but truth to tell, it is more of an "anti-McCain" sentiment than anything else.

The hottest issue here seems to be illegal immigration (even amongst dems). This is especially true since our current governess (Janet Napolitano) is AWOL on this issue.

I expect that this will play out big time over the next month as Janet tries to defend her record while Len Munsil challenges it. Even though the AZ. punditocracy has already written off Len, I would suggest it is early days as of yet.

Len is trying a grass-roots campaign, whereas Janet is choosing a top-down approach. I would suggest that even if Janet win, she will be in for the fight of her life.

I don't know about Kolbe's old district, but the GOP has a definate advantage there when it comes to illegal immigration issues. I expect the dem challenger there to try to avoid the issue and be anti-war. Furthermore, I expect him to do a bit of Bush bashing. This could work in the GOP's favor if they embrace Bush on the war with its successes and focus on immigration.

Natrium · September 13, 2006 02:21 PM

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