Current Conditions In Wuhan 26 January

The video is in Chinese with English subtitles.


( About 12 minutes )

So how bad is it. Very.

The rate of increase is around 25X a week. Doubling time of around 30 hours. The death toll is 2% (so far) which means 6.6 million dead in the USA most of them coming as the epidemic winds down. There will not be enough hospitals and doctors or medical supplies. Or soap. Incubation periods are from 1 day to 2 weeks with 7 days most likely. The disease seems infectious during the incubation period. Uh. Oh. Wash your hands – 3 minute video and more.

Some other informed speculation I did here.

If this spreads in the rest of the world as it has in China the rest of the world will be totally infected in 2 months. Assuming a death rate of 2% that means 6.6 million dead in the USA. 140 million world wide.

Mostly Old Farts. It may help Social Security once clean up has fixed things.

I assume 25X increase every week. It will slow down as greater portions of the population have been infected. Which is not much comfort given a doubling time of around 30 hours.

And some other bad news. It seems to be infectious when it is incubating.

Update: 1423z 26 January 2020.

Coronavirus medic claims China is lying as ‘100,000 people are infected’ – video Daily Star – U.K.

Update: 1846z 26 January 2020.

Shortages of everything related to medical kit and virus tracking kits.


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4 responses to “Current Conditions In Wuhan 26 January”

  1. Kathy Kinsley Avatar
    Kathy Kinsley

    I think we don’t need to panic yet. This isn’t by any means, the first pandemic scare out of China.

  2. Simon Avatar

    Three cases reported in the US yesterday. 22 Definite or suspected cases today. 5 Confirmed. 5/3 = 1.666X increase every day. At 1.5X a day the factor is 17X in a week. The worst will be the last week.

    And you don’t need symptoms to be infectious.

    Coronavirus contagious even in incubation stage, China’s health authority says
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047701/coronavirus-contagious-even-incubation-stage-chinas-health

    He who panics first…….

  3. Simon Avatar

    Nominally every one in the US will be infected in 6 weeks. Actual may be 7 or 8 weeks.

    Panic early. You have some time.

  4. Kathy Kinsley Avatar
    Kathy Kinsley

    Sars, Swine Flu…oh, what’s the use. We LOVE to PANIC. Have fun.