We are half way through the bottom of a Kondratieff cycle. Each part of the cycle lasts about 20 years.
1. The rise – new technology lowers costs
2. The plateau – enjoying the fruits – nothing big on the horizon
3. The fall – the gains decline or get eaten
4. The bottom – the INs are holding back the OUTS (who have the next solution for a rise)
We are about 1/2 way through the current bottom phase. The cause of the next rise IMO? Cannabis medicine will augment current medical practices greatly lowering the cost of medical care. And of course robots. Something we can see but is so far not big enough to have a significant economic effect.
The biggest drag on the economy currently – police trying to fix a medical problem and leaving real crimes mostly unsolved. Look at crime clearance rates over the years. And with so many police, judges, etc – we now have big pension problems. Dallas is being written about. There are many others.
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3 responses to “Bottoming Out”
I can think of bigger drags on the economy then not being alowed to smoke dope. like effects of free trade.
It is more likely that we are at the top of the cycle and are about to experience a sharp fall. The problem is the large Negro underclass that can neither be assimilated or controlled and large scale importation of a Mexican/Central American underclass. Both underclasses are widely infested with violent criminals, and both now control substantial portions of all our large cities. In some, they have effectively replaced the local government.
These are the main problems. Your long-standing concerns about cannabis, still illegal under federal law and regulation in every jurisdiction in the US, are irrelevant.
Lowering the cost of 1/6th of the economy is irrelevant? If the effect is only 10%, that gives an economic boost of around 1.7%
Do you get why Pharma companies might be against plant provided cannabinoids? A 10% cut in their business would be significant. A 20% cut would be a disaster.
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Tops are not usually coincident with interest rates in the region of 1%.
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Before Prohibition about .1% of the population was imprisoned. We are now at about .7% and still rising. It takes about .7% more of the population to keep that system running.
That is a dead loss of around 1.5%. Suppose we cut it back to .2%. Do you think that would help?
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Hot house tomatoes run less that $10 a lb. Cannabis retails (in the Black Market) for about $4,000 a lb. Do you think getting the difference into the legal economy would help?