The Voters Will Have To Decide

Can you believe Obama actually said that? Well he didn’t actually say that. But that was the headline.

Defiant in the face of a Supreme Court rebuke, President Obama warned Thursday that immigration reform is at stake in the November election and called on Americans to reject Donald Trump’s “fantasy” approach to the contentious issue.

Obama also admitted explicitly for the first time that his nominee to the high court, Judge Merrick Garland, would not be confirmed before the country has a new president-elect.

The president, speaking after a 4-4 high court ruling that blocked his sweeping plan to protect some 5 million immigrants from deportation, never spoke Trump’s name but alluded to the presumptive GOP nominee’s proposals to force Mexico to pay for a border wall and to freeze Muslim immigration to the U.S.

How about some history from April of this year.

Betting odds move sharply toward Britain staying in EU after Obama warning

Bookmakers’ odds have shifted sharply toward Britain voting to remain in the European Union in a referendum in June, a move in sentiment also reflected by the pound rising on Monday to a near six-week high against the euro.

Both moves followed a direct intervention by U.S. President Barack Obama in favor of Britain staying in, but those advocating leaving sought to undermine his arguments and warned the “In” camp not to celebrate too early.

And now for some current events.

Britain Votes to Leave E.U.

Britain has voted to leave the European Union, a historic decision sure to reshape the nation’s place in the world, rattle the Continent and rock political establishments throughout the West.

With the counting complete on Friday morning, the “Leave” campaign won by 52 percent to 48 percent. More than 17.4 million people voted in the referendum on Thursday to sever ties with the European Union, and about 16.1 million to remain in the bloc.

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Despite opinion polls before the referendum that showed either side in a position to win, the outcome nonetheless stunned much of Britain, Europe and the trans-Atlantic alliance, highlighting the power of anti-elite, populist and nationalist sentiment at a time of economic and cultural dislocation.

“Dare to dream that the dawn is breaking on an independent United Kingdom,” Nigel Farage, the leader of the U.K. Independence Party, one of the primary forces behind the push for a referendum on leaving the European Union, told cheering supporters just after 4 a.m.

My sincere hope is that Hillary gets a surprise in October and that she and Obama get a bigger surprise in November.

And from the looks of things Hillary is panicked.

Today not only marks the one-year anniversary of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign; it also marks the beginning of Hillary Clinton’s first battleground advertising blitz of the general election. The TV ad buy — in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia — has a price tag of at least $7.3 million. And it uses the TV ad it unveiled on Sunday hitting Trump (“What kind of America do we want to be? Dangerously divided or strong and united?”), as well as two new positive bio spots on Clinton (here and here). Don’t be surprised if the positive spots run more often than the anti-Trump contrast ad. Why? Because the Clinton camp probably realizes it needs to work on Hillary’s favorable numbers, especially since Trump’s unfavorable ratings are about as low as they can go. More than anything else, the ad blitz demonstrates Clinton’s financial superiority right now. How long will she have the battleground-state airwaves to herself?

And the sign of panic? It is summertime. People don’t watch TV. They spend their time outdoors. Spending on political ads in the summertime before the conventions is mostly a waste of money. Excellent!