CapitalistRoader reminded me of some things that might not be well known around here. I’m a big Trump fan (could ya tell?) and have been hanging out mostly at Trumpbot sites for a while. I’m not quite to that level of crazy. Not quite.
The thinking at the ‘bot sites is that the eGOP doesn’t want Trump (here is why) and they are not too fond of Cruz either (here is why) so if they can figure out a way to bump Trump they will make an effort to dump Cruz and get some one “acceptable” to run. That scenario in all its forms is referred to as a “brokered convention”.
Excellent. Except that something happened in Colorado. They shut Trump out with process and insider “tricks” (commonly referred to as knowledge in polite circles). And Trump and his army made them look bad. Real bad. The Colorado loss was strategic. The uproar that followed was also part of the strategy. So Trump turned a battle field victory for them (we totally shut Trump out) into a strategic loss for them. They got a local victory at best.
And he made them look bad not just among Trump supporters.
The eGOP took a crap in the middle of the street to show their power. Trump then proceeded to paint them with it (eye bleach is on aisle 3). The GOP brand now has just salvage value. What ever that value I think at this point the eGOP will take it.
So lets go through the stages of grief. They are a little out of the usual order (that is allowed) to account better for the current situation. The numbering gives the original order.
1. Denial and Isolation – September 2015
2. Anger – Jan 2015
4. Depression – Feb 2015
3. Bargaining – About now
5. Acceptance – About May
I would say the eGOP is currently sending out feelers to see what kind of deal they can get. The outline of the deal should be clearer some time in May. The party will unite behind Trump (Cruz will be given orders – with an implied or else) and they will try to hold on to as many of the down ballot races as they can. Who knows – they might even increase their strength.
Trump’s next task will be to destroy Hillary while picking up as many Bernie supporters as he can. That will be easy I think. He has the perfect way to pick up some Bernie supporters well within the confines of Republican orthodoxy. And Hillary’s political sins are legion. I do not think it will even be close.
Don’t forget that this is a prediction and as you know, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
Comments
5 responses to “Let The Deal Making Commence”
Called it! Let the Trumping begin! Trumpening?
If you think the screaming about Colorado has been bad, just wait. The Cruz campaign mgr in CA said it took them 5 months to recruit the 169 delegate volunteers and 169 alternates. (Each district has a separate election for 3 delegates each plus some state wide.) Trump hired campaign mgr for CA last week. Deadline for delegate slate is May 7.
[…] my posts Civil War and Let The Deal Making Commence I suggested that we would start seeing a move towards Trump in the Republican Party in about two […]
Leon,
If Trump expects a first ballot win the selection and vetting of delegates is not critical. About 23 delegates per day is doable if the selection process is handed to the locals. Three delegates and three alternates from each locality is not too hard.
Cruz mathematically can’t win 1237 delegates at this point, not with the states he can conceivably win, not even with California.
Without California, Cruz can’t even keep Trump from getting 1237 outright, much less get 1237 himself.
My prediction as of a month ago, for what it’s worth, is that Trump gets to the RNC with between 1238 and 1300 delegates, and Cruz doesn’t break 800.