China. The article’s title is China’s Third Era: The End of Reform, Growth, and Stability. This is the ending:
Events are still unfolding, but we don’t have to wait for history to tell us what’s happening in China today. Three decades of stability and progress have come to an end. Deng’s China is now in the past, and the third era of the People’s Republic, which bears a chilling resemblance to the first one, has just begun.
You should read the whole thing. And if you are doing manufacturing in China perhaps you should reconsider.
Comments
2 responses to “An Era Of Strong Man Politics Returns”
Sadly, Gordon Chang has predicted five of the last zero collapses of China. His major flaw is highlighted by the paragraph containing: “People then were much more interested in the election campaign in the United States. In Rugao, several well-to-do couples quizzed us on how the concept of balance of power worked and whether John McCain or Barack Obama would win in November.”
Chang seems to have contact mostly with Chinese intellectuals and the upper middle class. Those groups are a tiny fraction of the population, and do not have the same kind of power they do in the U.S. I have never, not even once, heard this kind of stuff from Chinese colleagues. I suspect that leads him astray in his analysis.
I think that China is much weaker than most people seem to think. I also doubt the “anti-corruption” campaign currently being run by Beijing. I think that China remains what it has always been, and I doubt its capacity to become a new superpower, financially or militarily. I’m even open to the idea that China could break up into multiple states.
But Gordon Chang has to be taken with a large grain of salt.
“But Gordon Chang has to be taken with a large grain of salt.”
I had read something similar in the comments to several of his articles.
I still found his view interesting.