The good folks at Free Republic looked at early ballots from Ohio (a state that Obama cannot lose and still have much hope of winning the election) and they suggest… well, read for yourself:
Ok, I finally got around to comparing the total shortfall by both Ds and Rs from 2008 to 2012 in those counties reporting 2008 data. (Most which haven’t are not big pop, key counties, so their inclusion probably wouldn’t change the ratios much). First, total absentee requests in OH fell from 2008. Second, two counties, Montgomery (mine) and Cuyahoga, actually GAINED R absentees over 08. Third, the data is as of close of business yesterday.
Total D dropoff from 2008: 224,550
Total R dropoff: 49,270
Total NET D dropoff: 175,280Obama won OH by 250,000 votes.
…
Jim from C-Town
So, if you figure the Ds are already down 175,000 votes after absentee voting, Rs have to secure only 85,000 votes outside of Cuyahoga. I think this will be achieved even without a single indie vote—simply by the increase in R margins in counties such as Summit, Hamilton, Warren, and even Franklin.So, if this is the case, if Romney wins Is by one or two points, it’s a BIG victory.
In recent polling, Romney has led independents in OH by as much as 20 points.
Obviously still some time for the race to change, so as Glenn says, “don’t get cocky” — get to work. Get on a phone, go door-to-door, make a donation of money or time. We can get this country headed in the right direction!
Comments
2 responses to “Romney Heading For Election Win?”
One thing that bugs me is that Intrade still has Obama as the favorite. Granted, since the first debate, his odds have come down from a prohibitive 70+% to roughly 60%. Still, reading the polls and early returns I would think it should be roughly 50%.
Leaving aside the idea that somebody is manipulating–Intrade’s number does respond to events, so it’s not completely rigged–why are people so willing to put their money on Obama at 60%?
You have to understand what InTrade is and how highly volatile options are traded.
First off, Intrade is tiny. It’s a month before the election and volume barely ever hits 50k trade per day. It’s easily distorted by self-selection bias — or deliberate manipulation.
Second, elections are all or nothing — they’re an option that expires in less than a month and then someone gets 100 while someone else gets 0 so it should be trending hard toward one of those values. If you understand options, then you realize 60 at this late point basically means “we have absolutely no idea who is going to win.”
Finally, like all prediction markets, Intrade is wrong all the time for reasons beyond anyone’s control.