A Taxing Issue, But For Whom?

So, this weekend the talking heads have been discussing the extra years of Romney’s tax returns Democrats are demanding. I wonder why more aren’t seeing that this is a classic Romney rope-a-dope: there’s nothing to hide in his tax returns (the guy is clean as a whistle), and he’s probably known for a decade that Democrats would try to make this an issue. So, most likely, he’s just letting the Dems focus their attacks on something he can easily clear up in September/October.

And then, with one stroke, there’s three months and tens of millions of Dem effort wasted on a non-issue. Plus, the nuttier Dems get on this issue (and they’ve already gotten pretty nutty) the more he can play the righteous indignation card when he finally releases them. Reid is playing right into Romney’s hands here, and incidentally not doing himself or the Democrats any favors in the process.

It’s genius, really — when Romney does release the returns, all the erstwhile irresponsible Dem speculation fantasies will also inoculate Romney against the inevitable “Bush DUI” “Forged Bush Guard Memos” October surprises.  “Yeah, remember all that stuff they said about my tax returns? Remind me how that one turned out.”

*******

I’ve been saying for several months that Republicans should not underestimate Mitt Romney. Already he’s turned “you didn’t build that” into the defining phrase of the election, and at this point with realistic turnout models Romney’s probably winning the election by 3-5 points (I don’t care how many scenarios Nate Silver has running over at his 538 blog, Obama is not going to lose independents and win the election, it just isn’t a credible scenario in an election where the GOP is +12 in enthusiasm) — and this even as he sits back and amasses a huge cash advantage over Obama, who is spending far more while raising less.

And GOP spending is a bigger problem for Dems than vice-versa, as we saw in 2004 with the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth: the Dem message is promulgated by the MSM on a daily basis, so each dollar of Dem campaign spending doesn’t go nearly as far in terms of spreading their viewpoint — their audience is already largely saturated, whereas the GOP’s message is often new to audiences.


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4 responses to “A Taxing Issue, But For Whom?”

  1. joshua Avatar

    Personally I think Romney just knows his opponents will never be placated and doesn’t want to give them more ammunition for cherry-picking (just like Obama not wanting to release his college records), but I like your theory. The Democrats are definitely getting nuttier about it.

  2. Simon Avatar
    Simon

    We had a commenter on one of Dave’s predictions say 40 states. Being the eternal optimist I’ll say: might be more.

    Depends on whether the Euros can hold together for 2 1/2 more months (giving 2 weeks for impact). Possible.

    Europe:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-us-citizens-pay-attention

    America:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/earnings-season-nearly-over-60-companies-have-missed-top-line-revenues-down-1-last-year

  3. joshua Avatar

    If you think it’s that obvious you can make some free money http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

    I’m not nearly so optimistic. Of course I’m not even optimistic that Romney would be noticeably better than Obama, but that’s another topic 😉

  4. Dave Avatar
    Dave

    Well, it’s only August, so it’s not a sure thing. But if I were a betting man, I’d like those odds — Intrade is approximately inverted from what it should be.