Pollaxed

Wow. Just wow. This is amazing. If I were Ace, I’d be breaking out the Flaming Skull. If I were Allahpundit, the robot would be humping.

So I’ve been saying for a while 2012 will look more like 2010/2004 (even D/R split) than 2008 (D+7). Jay Cost tends to agree, and points out current polling assumes 2012 will look like something like D+6.

Well, mea culpa, let me issue a correction: 2012 may look more like R+7.

Look at that Gallup graph, and then look at Jay’s table: Democrats had a 17-point enthusiasm advantage in 2004 and the split was even. A 26-point advantage in 2008 yielded a D+7 split.

What in God’s name will a 12-point enthusiasm advantage for Republicans produce?

Ceteris paribus, Obama probably can’t hope to win this election with turnout much less favorable than D+3. If turnout goes positive in the R direction, the only question is how big Romney wins.

The appropriate “don’t get cocky, kid” caveats apply, of course.

(BTW, that last NBC poll? Weighted D+12, with leaners).

UPDATE:  A quant at The Naked Dollar blog looks at the national mood and finds a trend favorable to the GOP:

This time series started on April 1st. Each time a poll moves for a Republican, it’s a positive, and vice verse. (Obama moving from +1 to +3 would mean the Index moves down 2 points, in other words.)

Interesting methodology, keep an eye on this!

 


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9 responses to “Pollaxed”

  1. Eric Avatar

    Thanks for the optimistic post. I needed a lift.

  2. […] of yesterday’s poleaxing poll post, a quant at The Naked Dollar blog looks at the national mood and finds a trend favorable to the […]

  3. Roman Maroni Avatar
    Roman Maroni

    What was the split for the Reagan landslide

  4. CBD (NJConservative) Avatar
    CBD (NJConservative)

    “Don’t get cocky, kid,” has been superseded by the words of the immortal Winston Wolf:

    ” Well, let’s not start sucking each other’s dicks quite yet.”

  5. traye Avatar
    traye

    The Reagan landslide doesn’t count. That was before an additional generation of government school leftist indoctrination. Too many brain dead lefties to reach that level, at least for another generation.

  6. Truman North Avatar

    Ive been saying Romney wins 40 States since March.

  7. […] didn’t build that” into the defining phrase of the election, and at this point with realistic turnout models Romney’s probably winning the election by 3-5 points (I don’t care how many scenarios Nate Silver has running over at his 538 blog, Obama is not […]

  8. […] get these D+13, D+14, D+9 polls — not because anyone thinks the election will look like that (much more likely is something in the range of even to R+3), but because their false, badly leaking narrative desperately needs validation. Just remember […]

  9. […] that this is exactly what we’ve been saying: turnout is going to look a lot more like 2010 than […]